Future of cancer incidence in Shanghai, China: Predicting the burden upon the ageing population

Abstract

Aim: The age-specific cancer patterns have changed significantly over the last few decades in urban Shanghai. Predicting the cancer incidence in an ageing population can help to anticipate future resource needs, evaluate primary prevention strategies, and inform further research studies.

Materials and methods: Annual cancer cases and population data from 1988 to 2013 were collected from Shanghai Cancer Registry. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the future cancer incidence with demographical changes from 2014 to 2025.

Results: From 1988 through 2013, the urban population aged < 65 years decreased by 19.5%, while the population aged ≥ 65 years increased by 58.4%. In the same period, cancer cases increased by 66.0% (from 8315 to 13,806) and 88.6% (from 7448 to 14,048) in these two populations, respectively. From 2014-2025, the population size is expected to decrease by an additional 29.6% in people aged < 65 years, while it will increase by an additional 68.3% in people aged ≥ 65 years. Correspondingly, the model predicts an 87.5% and 143.4% increase in cancer cases for these two populations, respectively. The most pronounced increase was found in thyroid cancer in both sexes, followed by prostate, kidney, and colon cancer in men. In women, lung, kidney, and cervical cancer in women was expected to increase.

Conclusions: The number of cancer cases in urban Shanghai, especially in older people, is expected to significantly increase in the next decade. Particular strategies targeting the elderly are required to combat the cancers.

Keywords: Ageing population; Cancer incidence; Projections; Shanghai.