Analysis of clinical parameters and echocardiography as predictors of fatal pediatric myocarditis

Abstract

Pediatric myocarditis symptoms can be mild or as extreme as sudden cardiac arrest. Early identification of the severity of illness and timely provision of critical care is helpful; however, the risk factors associated with mortality remain unclear and controversial. We undertook a retrospective review of the medical records of pediatric patients with myocarditis in a tertiary care referral hospital for over 12 years to identify the predictive factors of mortality. Demographics, presentation, laboratory test results, echocardiography findings, and treatment outcomes were obtained. Regression analyses revealed the clinical parameters for predicting mortality. During the 12-year period, 94 patients with myocarditis were included. Of these, 16 (17%) patients died, with 12 succumbing in the first 72 hours after admission. Fatal cases more commonly presented with arrhythmia, hypotension, acidosis, gastrointestinal symptoms, decreased left ventricular ejection fraction, and elevated isoenzyme of creatine kinase and troponin I levels than nonfatal cases. In multivariate analysis, troponin I > 45 ng/mL and left ventricular ejection fraction < 42% were significantly associated with mortality. Pediatric myocarditis had a high mortality rate, much of which was concentrated in the first 72 hours after hospitalization. Children with very high troponin levels or reduced ejection fraction in the first 24 hours were at higher risk of mortality, and targeting these individuals for more intensive therapies may be warranted.

Fig 1. Flow diagram for selection of myocarditis cases.

Fig 2. Receiver operating characteristic curve for initial serum troponin-I in predicting the mortality of pediatric myocarditis.

The area under the curve was 0.76. The best cutoff value for serum troponin-I was 45 ng/mL (sensitivity, 0.62; specificity, 0.91).