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. 2019 Mar 26;10(1):1375.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-09100-5.

Eutrophication will increase methane emissions from lakes and impoundments during the 21st century

Jake J Beaulieu  1 , Tonya DelSontro  2   3 , John A Downing  4
Affiliations

Eutrophication will increase methane emissions from lakes and impoundments during the 21st century

Jake J Beaulieu et al. Nat Commun. .

Abstract

Lakes and impoundments are an important source of methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas, to the atmosphere. A recent analysis shows aquatic productivity (i.e., eutrophication) is an important driver of CH4 emissions from lentic waters. Considering that aquatic productivity will increase over the next century due to climate change and a growing human population, a concomitant increase in aquatic CH4 emissions may occur. We simulate the eutrophication of lentic waters under scenarios of future nutrient loading to inland waters and show that enhanced eutrophication of lakes and impoundments will substantially increase CH4 emissions from these systems (+30-90%) over the next century. This increased CH4 emission has an atmospheric impact of 1.7-2.6 Pg C-CO2-eq y-1, which is equivalent to 18-33% of annual CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels. Thus, it is not only important to limit eutrophication to preserve fragile water supplies, but also to avoid acceleration of climate change.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Relationships between CH4 flux rates and productivity measured as the concentration of chlorophyll a (chla) in the water column of lakes and impoundments. Solid lines are regression relationships. a Diffusive flux is the flux rate from the water to the atmosphere driven by super-saturation in the water column. b Ebullitive flux is that emitted by the formation of bubbles transported to the surface. c  Total flux is the sum of both diffusive and ebullitive flux. Note: panel a shows only the relationship between diffusive CH4 flux and chla concentration, whereas the predictive model for diffusive flux includes both a lake size and chla effect (Table 3)
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Simulated future global emissions of CH4 calculated at multiple levels of increased eutrophication driven by accelerated TP loading to lakes and impoundments (see Methods). The scenarios are based on a review of the published literature and reflect future TP concentrations that are 0.75, 1.5, 2, 2.5, and 3× greater (i.e., 0.75×, 1.5×, 2×, 2.5×, 3×) than current levels (1×), as indicated on x-axis. Simulated TP concentration was converted to chlorophyll a (chla) using published data (see Methods and Supplementary Figure 1) resulting in future chla concentrations that are 0.8, 1.3, 1.7, 2.0, and 2.2× that of current levels. CH4 emissions were predicted from lake surface area and/or chla
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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