Lifetime Risks for Hypertension by Contemporary Guidelines in African American and White Men and Women

Abstract

Importance: Patterns of hypertension risk development over the adult lifespan and lifetime risks for hypertension under the American Heart Association and American College of Cardiology (AHA/ACC) 2017 thresholds for hypertension (≥130/80 mm Hg) are unknown.

Objective: To quantify and compare lifetime risks for hypertension in white and African American men and women under the AHA/ACC 2017 and the Seventh Joint National Commission (JNC7) hypertension thresholds.

Design, setting, and participants: We used individual-level pooled data from 3 contemporary cohorts in the Cardiovascular Lifetime Risk Pooling Project: the Framingham Offspring Study, the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study, and Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. These community-based cohorts included white and African American men and women with blood pressure assessment at multiple cohort examinations.

Main outcomes and measures: Cumulative lifetime risk for hypertension from ages 20 through 85 years, adjusted for competing risk of death and baseline hypertension prevalence. Incident hypertension under the AHA/ACC threshold was defined by a single-occasion blood pressure measurement of 130/80 mm Hg or more or self-reported use of antihypertensive medications. Incident hypertension under the JNC7 threshold was defined by a single-occasion blood pressure measurement of 140/90 mm Hg or more or the use of antihypertensive medications.

Results: A total of 13 160 participants contributed 227 600 person-years of follow-up; the data set included individual-level data on 6313 participants at baseline (median age, 25 years), plus person-year data from participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities and Framingham Offspring studies who enrolled at older ages. Baseline prevalence of hypertension under the AHA/ACC 2017 threshold in participants entering the data set between 20 and 30 years of age was 30.7% in white men (n = 549 of 1790), 23.1% in African American men (n = 245 of 1063), 10.2% in white women (n = 210 of 2070), and 12.3% in African American women (n = 171 of 1390). White men had lifetime risk of hypertension of 83.8% (95% CI, 82.5%-85.0%); African American men, 86.1% (95% CI, 84.1%-88.1%); white women, 69.3% (95% CI, 67.8%-70.7%); and African American women, 85.7% (95% CI, 84.0%-87.5%). These were greater than corresponding lifetime risks under the JNC7 threshold for hypertension (white men, 60.5% [95% CI, 58.9%-62.1%]; African American men, 74.7% [95% CI, 71.9%-77.5%]; white women, 53.9% [95% CI, 52.5%-55.4%]; and African American women, 77.3% [95% CI, 75.0%-79.5%]).

Conclusions and relevance: Under the AHA/ACC 2017 blood pressure threshold for hypertension, lifetime risks for hypertension exceeded 75% for African American men and women and white men. Furthermore, prevalence of blood pressure of 130/80 mm Hg or more is very high in young adulthood, suggesting that efforts to prevent development of hypertension should be focused early in the life course.

Figure.. Race-Stratified Cumulative Risks for Hypertension in Men and Women by the Seventh Joint National Commission and American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology 2017 Blood Pressure Thresholds

Solid black lines and solid orange lines represent cumulative risk for hypertension under the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology 2017 guidelines in African American individuals and white individuals, respectively. Dashed black lines and dashed orange lines represent cumulative risk for hypertension under the Seventh Joint National Commission threshold in African American individuals and white individuals, respectively. These risk curves represent the sum of age-specific cumulative incidence for hypertension by sex and race groups. Numbers of individuals in the risk set will increase or decrease with increasing age, because older individuals contributed person-years of data to age-specific risk estimates for their age at cohort enrollment until they were censored. Thus, number at risk tables are not included.