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. 2019 Apr 1:22:e190030.
doi: 10.1590/1980-549720190030.

Probability of premature death for chronic non-communicable diseases, Brazil and Regions, projections to 2025

[Article in Portuguese, English]
Deborah Carvalho Malta  1   2 , Silvânia Suely Caribé de Araújo Andrade  2 , Taís Porto Oliveira  2 , Lenildo de Moura  3 , Rogério Ruscitto do Prado  2   4 , Maria de Fátima Marinho de Souza  2
Affiliations
Free article

Probability of premature death for chronic non-communicable diseases, Brazil and Regions, projections to 2025

[Article in Portuguese, English]
Deborah Carvalho Malta et al. Rev Bras Epidemiol. .
Free article

Abstract
in English, Portuguese

Objective: Objective: To analyze the mortality trends for Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs) in the period 2000-2013 and its probability of death until 2025.

Method: time series analysis of mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory disease, with correction for ill-defined causes and underreporting of deaths and calculation of probability of death.

Results: There was an average decline of 2.5% per year in all four major NCDs in Brazil. There was a decline in all regions and federal units. The reduced likelihood of death by 30% in 2000 to 26.1% in 2013 and expected decline to 20.5% in 2025.

Conclusion: From the trend of reduction is expected to reach Brazil reducing overall goal 25% by 2025.

Objetivo: Analisar as tendências de mortalidade por doenças crônicas não transmissíveis (DCNT) no período de 2000 a 2013 e a probabilidade de morte até 2025.

Método: Análise de série temporal de mortalidade das DCNT (doenças cardiovasculares, câncer, diabetes e doenças respiratórias crônicas), com correções para causas mal definidas e sub-registro de óbitos, e a probabilidade de morte por essas doenças.

Resultados: Houve declínio médio de 2,5% ao ano no conjunto das quatro principais DCNT no Brasil entre 2000 e 2013, em todas as regiões e unidades federativas. A probabilidade de morte foi reduzida de 30% em 2000 para 26,1% em 2013, e estima-se que caia para 20,5% em 2025.

Conclusões: Dada a tendência de queda, prevê-se que o Brasil atinja a meta global de redução de 25% até 2025.

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