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Meta-Analysis
. 2019 Apr 9;4(4):CD001511.
doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD001511.pub4.

Glucocorticosteroids for people with alcoholic hepatitis

Chavdar S Pavlov  1 , Daria L Varganova, Giovanni Casazza, Emmanuel Tsochatzis, Dimitrinka Nikolova, Christian Gluud
Affiliations
Meta-Analysis

Glucocorticosteroids for people with alcoholic hepatitis

Chavdar S Pavlov et al. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. .

Abstract

Background: Alcoholic hepatitis is a form of alcoholic liver disease characterised by steatosis, necroinflammation, fibrosis, and complications to the liver. Typically, alcoholic hepatitis presents in people between 40 and 50 years of age. Alcoholic hepatitis can be resolved if people abstain from drinking, but the risk of death will depend on the severity of the liver damage and abstinence from alcohol. Glucocorticosteroids have been studied extensively in randomised clinical trials to assess their benefits and harms. However, the results have been contradictory.

Objectives: To assess the benefits and harms of glucocorticosteroids in people with alcoholic hepatitis.

Search methods: We identified trials through electronic searches in Cochrane Hepato-Biliary's (CHB) Controlled Trials Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, and Science Citation Index Expanded. We looked for ongoing or unpublished trials in clinical trials registers and pharmaceutical company sources. We also scanned reference lists of the studies retrieved. The last search was 18 January 2019.

Selection criteria: Randomised clinical trials assessing glucocorticosteroids versus placebo or no intervention in people with alcoholic hepatitis, irrespective of year, language of publication, or format. We considered trials with adults diagnosed with alcoholic hepatitis, which could have been established through clinical or biochemical diagnostic criteria or both. We defined alcoholic hepatitis as mild (Maddrey's score less than 32) and severe (Maddrey's score 32 or more). We allowed cointerventions in the trial groups, provided they were similar.

Data collection and analysis: We followed Cochrane methodology, performing the meta-analyses using Review Manager 5. We presented the results of dichotomous outcomes as risk ratios (RR) and of continuous outcomes as mean difference (MD), with 95% confidence intervals (CI). We used both the fixed-effect and the random-effects models for meta-analyses. Whenever there were significant discrepancies in the results, we reported the more conservative point estimate of the two. We considered a P value of 0.01 or less, two-tailed, as statistically significant if the required information size was reached for our three primary outcomes (all-cause mortality, health-related quality of life, and serious adverse events during treatment) and our post hoc decision to include analyses of mortality at more time points. We presented heterogeneity using the I² statistic. If trialists used intention-to-treat analysis to deal with missing data, we used these data in our primary analysis; otherwise, we used the available data. We assessed the bias risk of the trials using bias risk domains and the certainty of the evidence using GRADE.

Main results: Sixteen trials fulfilled our inclusion criteria. All trials but one were at overall high risk of bias. Fifteen trials (one of which was an abstract) provided data for analysis (927 participants received glucocorticosteroids and 934 participants received placebo or no intervention). Glucocorticosteroids were administered orally or parenterally for a median 28 days (range 3 days to 12 weeks). The participants were between 25 and 70 years old, had different stages of alcoholic liver disease, and 65% were men. Follow-up, when reported, was up to the moment of discharge from the hospital, until they died (median of 63 days), or for at least one year. There was no evidence of effect of glucocorticosteroids on all-cause mortality up to three months following randomisation (random-effects RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.70 to 1.15; participants = 1861; trials = 15; very low-certainty evidence) or on health-related quality of life up to three months, measured with the European Quality of Life - 5 Dimensions - 3 Levels scale (MD -0.04 points, 95% CI -0.11 to 0.03; participants = 377; trial = 1; low-certainty evidence). There was no evidence of effect on the occurrence of serious adverse events during treatment (random-effects RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.29; participants = 1861; trials = 15; very low-certainty evidence), liver-related mortality up to three months following randomisation (random-effects RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.14; participants = 1861; trials = 15; very low-certainty evidence), number of participants with any complications up to three months following randomisation (random-effects RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.27; participants = 1861; very low-certainty evidence), and number of participants of non-serious adverse events up to three months' follow-up after end of treatment (random-effects RR 1.99, 95% CI 0.72 to 5.48; participants = 160; trials = 4; very low-certainty evidence). Based on the information that we collected from the published trial reports, only one of the trials seems not to be industry-funded, and the remaining 15 trials did not report clearly whether they were partly or completely funded by the industry.

Authors' conclusions: We are very uncertain about the effect estimate of no difference between glucocorticosteroids and placebo or no intervention on all-cause mortality and serious adverse events during treatment because the certainty of evidence was very low, and low for health-related quality of life. Due to inadequate reporting, we cannot exclude increases in adverse events. As the CIs were wide, we cannot rule out significant benefits or harms of glucocorticosteroids. Therefore, we need placebo-controlled randomised clinical trials, designed according to the SPIRIT guidelines and reported according to the CONSORT guidelines. Future trials ought to report depersonalised individual participant data, so that proper individual participant data meta-analyses of the effects of glucocorticosteroids in subgroups can be conducted.

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Conflict of interest statement

CP: none. DV: none. GC: none. ET: none. DN: none. CG: none.

Figures

1
1
Study flow diagram.
2
2
Risk of bias graph: review authors' judgements about each risk of bias domain presented as percentages across all included studies.
3
3
Risk of bias summary: review authors' judgements about each risk of bias domain for each included study.
4
4
All‐cause mortality up to three months after randomisation. Fifteen trials provided data. The diversity‐adjusted required information size (DARIS) was calculated based on all‐cause mortality of 30% in the control group; relative risk reduction (RRR) in the glucocorticosteroid group of 20%; type I error of 1%; and type II error of 20% (80% power). Trial diversity was 62%. The required information size was 6734 participants. The cumulative Z‐curve (blue line) did not cross the trial sequential monitoring boundaries for benefit or harm (red inward sloping lines) and did not enter the trial sequential monitoring area for futility (inner‐wedge with red outward sloping lines). The green dotted lines show the conventional boundaries of the naive alpha of 5% equal to Z‐scores of +1.96 and –1.96.
5
5
Funnel plot of comparison 1. Glucocorticosteroids versus no intervention/placebo, outcome 1.1 all‐cause mortality.
6
6
All‐cause mortality at the end of treatment (median 28 days (range 3 days to 12 weeks) (post hoc analysis). Fourteen trials provided data. The diversity‐adjusted required information size (DARIS) was calculated based on all‐cause mortality of 22% in the control group; relative risk reduction (RRR) in the glucocorticosteroid group of 20%; type I error of 1%; and type II error of 20% (80% power). Trial diversity was 59%. The required information size was 9242 participants. The cumulative Z‐curve (blue line) did not cross the trial sequential monitoring boundaries for benefit or harm (red inward sloping lines) and did not enter the trial sequential monitoring area for futility (inner‐wedge with red outward sloping lines). The green dotted lines show the conventional boundaries of the naive alpha of 5% equal to Z‐scores of +1.96 and –1.96.
7
7
All‐cause mortality up to 1 year (post hoc analysis). Three trials provided data. The diversity‐adjusted required information size (DARIS) was calculated based on mortality in the control group of 40%; relative risk reduction (RRR) of 20% in the glucocorticosteroid group; type I error of 1%; and type II error of 20% (80% power). Trial diversity was 0%. The required information size was 1695 participants. The cumulative Z‐curve (blue line) did not cross the trial sequential monitoring boundaries for benefit or harm (red inward sloping lines). The cumulative Z‐curve crossed the inner‐wedge futility line (red outward sloping lines). The green dotted lines show the conventional boundaries of the naive alpha of 5% equal to Z‐scores of +1.96 and –1.96.
8
8
Serious adverse events during treatment. There are 15 trials providing data. The diversity‐adjusted required information size (DARIS) was calculated based on an incidence rate of serious adverse events in the control group of 36%; relative risk reduction (RRR) of 20% in the glucocorticosteroid group; type I error of 1%; and type II error of 20% (80% power). Trial diversity was 70%. The required information size was 6566 participants. The cumulative Z‐curve (blue line) did not cross the trial sequential monitoring boundaries for benefit or harm (red inward sloping lines), but it entered the trial sequential monitoring area for futility (inner‐wedge futility line red outward sloping lines) indicating that sufficient information was provided. The green dotted lines show the conventional boundaries of the naive alpha of 5% equal to Z‐scores of +1.96 and –1.96.
9
9
Liver‐related mortality up to three months after randomisation. Fifteen trials provided data. The diversity‐adjusted required information size (DARIS) was calculated based on liver‐related mortality of 30% in the control group; relative risk reduction (RRR) in the glucocorticosteroid group of 20%; type I error of 1%; and type II error of 20% (80% power). Trial diversity was 68%. The required information size was 8059 participants. The cumulative Z‐curve (blue line) did not cross the trial sequential monitoring boundaries for benefit or harm (red inward sloping lines) and did not enter the trial sequential monitoring area for futility (inner‐wedge with red outward sloping lines). The green dotted lines show the conventional boundaries of the naive alpha of 5% equal to Z‐scores of +1.96 and –1.96.
10
10
Any complications up to three months' follow‐up after randomisation. Fifteen trials provided data. The diversity‐adjusted required information size (DARIS) was calculated based on any complications of 44% in the control group; relative risk reduction (RRR) in the glucocorticosteroid group of 20%; type I error of 1%; and type II error of 20% (80% power). Trial diversity was 75%. The required information size was 5887 participants. The cumulative Z‐curve (blue line) did not cross the trial sequential monitoring boundaries for benefit or harm (red inward sloping lines). The cumulative Z‐curve crossed the inner‐wedge futility line (red outward sloping lines). The green dotted lines show the conventional boundaries of the naive alpha of 5% equal to Z‐scores of +1.96 and –1.96.
11
11
Non‐serious adverse events up to three months after randomisation. Four trials provided data. The diversity‐adjusted required information size (DARIS) was calculated based on non‐serious adverse events of 5% in the control group; relative risk reduction (RRR) in the glucocorticosteroid group of 50%; type I error of 1%; and type II error of 20% (80% power). Trial diversity was 0%. The required information size was 2698 participants. The cumulative Z‐curve (blue line) did not cross the trial sequential monitoring boundaries for benefit or harm (red inward sloping lines) and did not enter the trial sequential monitoring area for futility (inner‐wedge with red outward sloping lines). The green dotted lines show the conventional boundaries of the naive alpha of 5% equal to Z‐scores of +1.96 and –1.96.
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Update of

References

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References to studies excluded from this review

Alvarez 2004 {published data only}
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Moreno 2014 {published data only}
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References to other published versions of this review

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