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. 2019 May;25(5):988-991.
doi: 10.3201/eid2505.180776.

Novel Method for Rapid Detection of Spatiotemporal HIV Clusters Potentially Warranting Intervention

Arthur G Fitzmaurice, Laurie Linley, Chenhua Zhang, Meg Watson, Anne Marie France, Alexandra M Oster

Novel Method for Rapid Detection of Spatiotemporal HIV Clusters Potentially Warranting Intervention

Arthur G Fitzmaurice et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2019 May.

Abstract

Rapid detection of increases in HIV transmission enables targeted outbreak response efforts to reduce the number of new infections. We analyzed US HIV surveillance data and identified spatiotemporal clusters of diagnoses. This systematic method can help target timely investigations and preventive interventions for maximum public health benefit.

Keywords: HIV; HIV diagnosis; HIV/AIDS; outbreak detection; space–time; spatiotemporal cluster; surveillance system; viruses.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Alert criteria used in method for identifying spatiotemporal clusters of HIV diagnoses. For each cluster, the total number of cases (X) in a specified geographic area during the most recent 12 months exceeds the baseline mean (μ) of the previous 3 12-month periods by >2 SD (σ) and >2 diagnoses.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Percentage and absolute increases in annual HIV diagnoses above 3-year baseline means used in method for identifying spatiotemporal clusters of HIV diagnoses. Alerts are shown for 138 counties, as well as 21 county alerts attributable to injection drug use (inset). Five county alerts with 0 baseline diagnoses not shown (infinite percentage increase).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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