Five-Year Risk of Major Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Events After Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Abstract

Background and Purpose- We aimed to determine incidences and predictors of major vascular events in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) survivors. Methods- We did a prospective observational cohort study in patients with spontaneous ICH from the Prognosis of Intracerebral Hemorrhage cohort in Lille, France. We studied incidences and predictors of long-term vascular events (cerebral and extracerebral, ischemic and hemorrhagic) in patients alive at 30 days with a prespecified subgroup analysis according to ICH location. We performed multivariable analyses (competing risk analyses, with death during follow-up as a competing event). Results- From the 560 patients with spontaneous ICH enrolled between November 2004 and March 2009, we included 310 patients (median age, 70 years). Eighty-two patients presented at least 1 major vascular event leading to an incidence rate of 20.0% (95% CI, 15.7-24.7) at 5 years after ICH. In the overall cohort, ischemic events were more frequent than hemorrhagic events. However, the incidence strikingly differed according to ICH location: deep ICH was associated with future ischemic events (subhazard ratio, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.01-3.40), whereas lobar ICH with hemorrhagic events (subhazard ratio, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.17-4.86). In deep ICH, the incidence of ischemic events at 5 years was 6× higher than the incidence of hemorrhagic events. Conclusions- ICH survivors are at high risk of both cerebral and extracerebral vascular events. The ischemic or hemorrhagic risk profile varies according to the index ICH location with a stronger ischemic risk in deep ICH. Secondary prevention, tailored on ICH location, should target not only cerebral recurrences but also extracerebral vascular events.

Keywords: France; cerebral hemorrhage; cohort studies; prognosis; vascular events.