Serum alanine transaminase levels predict type 2 diabetes risk among a middle-aged and elderly Chinese population

Abstract

Introduction and aim: It is indicated that high levels of serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) are associated with increased incident type 2 diabetes risk. However, whether serum ALT levels could improve the discrimination of type 2 diabetes remains unclear.

Methods: The data was derived from the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort study, which was established in 2008 and followed until October 2013. A total of 17,173 participants free of type 2 diabetes at baseline were included and 1159 participants developed diabetes after 4.51 (0.61) years of follow-up. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) for the association between ALT and AST levels with incident diabetes risk. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis was used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of models incorporating traditional risk factors with and without ALT.

Results: Compared with the lowest quartile of ALT and AST levels, the highest quartile had a significantly higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes (HR: 2.17 [95% CI: 1.78-2.65] and 1.29 [1.08-1.54], respectively) after adjustment for potential confounders. The addition of ALT levels into the traditional risk factors did not improve the predictive ability of type 2 diabetes, with AUC increase from 0.772 to 0.774; P=0.86.

Conclusions: Although elevated ALT or AST levels increased incident type 2diabetes risk, addition of ALT levels into the prediction model did not improve the discrimination of type 2 diabetes.

Keywords: Alanine aminotransferase; Prediction model; Type 2 diabetes.