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Case Reports
. 2019 Feb;6(1):17-20.
doi: 10.7861/futurehosp.6-1-17.

POLICY: A novel modelling technique to predict resource -requirements in critical care - a case study

Tom Lawton  1 , Michael McCooe  2
Affiliations
Case Reports

POLICY: A novel modelling technique to predict resource -requirements in critical care - a case study

Tom Lawton et al. Future Healthc J. 2019 Feb.

Abstract

Modelling is an under-used tool in the NHS operationally; this is primarily due to a lack of familiarity, but also due to the complex nature of the healthcare system, lack of sufficiently detailed data, and difficulties trying to distil the heterogeneity of individual patient experience into manageable groups. This paper describes a model of patient flow and resource use on the critical care unit at Bradford Royal Infirmary, -produced using a novel technique which helps avoid these issues by using genuine routinely collected historical data in lieu of trying to model individual patients. This has had -unexpected benefits in terms of engagement with the model as it is much easier to justify its validity when it is based directly on real people. Going forward, we will use this approach to model an entire hospital.

Keywords: Modelling; Monte Carlo; critical care; simulation.

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Figures

Fig 1.
Fig 1.
Illustrative graph of 30-day bed occupancy from five model runs of the baseline unit, with real data for comparison.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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