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. 2019 May 22;13(5):e0007377.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007377. eCollection 2019 May.

A bioeconomic model for the optimization of local canine rabies control

Aaron Anderson  1 , Johann Kotzé  2 , Stephanie A Shwiff  1 , Brody Hatch  1 , Chris Slootmaker  1 , Anne Conan  3 , Darryn Knobel  3   4 , Louis H Nel  5   6
Affiliations

A bioeconomic model for the optimization of local canine rabies control

Aaron Anderson et al. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. .

Abstract

We present a new modeling tool that can be used to maximize the impact of canine rabies management resources that are available at the local level. The model is accessible through a web-based interface that allows for flexibility in the management strategies that can be investigated. Rabies vaccination, sterilization, chemo-contraception, and euthanasia can be specified and limited to specific demographic groups. Additionally, we allowed for considerable complexity in the specification of management costs. In many areas, the costs of contacting additional dogs increases as management effort increases, and this can have important strategic implications. We illustrated the application of the model by examining several alternative management strategies in an area of Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Our results based on this dog population suggested that puppies should be vaccinated and sterilization would not be optimal if the spatial extent of management is not large (and perhaps not even then). Furthermore, given a sufficient budget, it was evident that vaccination campaigns should be repeated annually.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Outline of code in the model script.
Fig 2
Fig 2. The stepwise-linear function for capture or contact costs used in our application.
Fig 3
Fig 3. Location of our study area for the health and demographic surveillance system.
Map produced using R gglpot and data from https://gadm.org/download_country_v3.html.
Fig 4
Fig 4. Abundance and rabies cases with no vaccination coverage and no management.
Fig 5
Fig 5. Abundance, disease cases, and vaccine coverage with annual vaccination (no puppies) and a total budget of R20,000.
Fig 6
Fig 6. Abundance, disease cases, and vaccine coverage with annual vaccination (inc. puppies), female sterilization, and a total budget of R40,000.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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