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. 2019 May 22:365:l1778.
doi: 10.1136/bmj.l1778.

Determinants of the decline in mortality from acute stroke in England: linked national database study of 795 869 adults

Olena O Seminog  1 , Peter Scarborough  2 , F Lucy Wright  3 , Mike Rayner  2 , Michael J Goldacre  3
Affiliations

Determinants of the decline in mortality from acute stroke in England: linked national database study of 795 869 adults

Olena O Seminog et al. BMJ. .

Erratum in

Abstract

Objectives: To study trends in stroke mortality rates, event rates, and case fatality, and to explain the extent to which the reduction in stroke mortality rates was influenced by changes in stroke event rates or case fatality.

Design: Population based study.

Setting: Person linked routine hospital and mortality data, England.

Participants: 795 869 adults aged 20 and older who were admitted to hospital with acute stroke or died from stroke.

Main outcome measures: Stroke mortality rates, stroke event rates (stroke admission or stroke death without admission), and case fatality within 30 days after stroke.

Results: Between 2001 and 2010 stroke mortality rates decreased by 55%, stroke event rates by 20%, and case fatality by 40%. The study population included 358 599 (45%) men and 437 270 (55%) women. Average annual change in mortality rate was -6.0% (95% confidence interval -6.2% to -5.8%) in men and -6.1% (-6.3% to -6.0%) in women, in stroke event rate was -1.3% (-1.4% to -1.2%) in men and -2.1% (-2.2 to -2.0) in women, and in case fatality was -4.7% (-4.9% to -4.5%) in men and -4.4% (-4.5% to -4.2%) in women. Mortality and case fatality but not event rate declined in all age groups: the stroke event rate decreased in older people but increased by 2% each year in adults aged 35 to 54 years. Of the total decline in mortality rates, 71% was attributed to the decline in case fatality (78% in men and 66% in women) and the remainder to the reduction in stroke event rates. The contribution of the two factors varied between age groups. Whereas the reduction in mortality rates in people younger than 55 years was due to the reduction in case fatality, in the oldest age group (≥85 years) reductions in case fatality and event rates contributed nearly equally.

Conclusions: Declines in case fatality, probably driven by improvements in stroke care, contributed more than declines in event rates to the overall reduction in stroke mortality. Mortality reduction in men and women younger than 55 was solely a result of a decrease in case fatality, whereas stroke event rates increased in the age group 35 to 54 years. The increase in stroke event rates in young adults is a concern. This suggests that stroke prevention needs to be strengthened to reduce the occurrence of stroke in people younger than 55 years.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form (available on request from the corresponding author) and declare: no support from any organisation for the submitted work; no financial relationships with any organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years, no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work; no spouses, partners, or children have financial relationship that may be relevant to the submitted work; and no non-financial interests that may be relevant to the submitted work.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1
Trends in age standardised stroke event rates and stroke mortality rates in men and women between 2001 and 2010, England
Fig 2
Fig 2
Trends in 30 day stroke case fatality, including in-hospital and out-of-hospital deaths, age standardised to study population and to 2013 European standard population (ESP), in men and women between 2001 and 2010, England
Fig 3
Fig 3
Percentage contribution of changes in stroke case fatality and event rates to percentage reduction in stroke mortality by age group in men and women between 2001 and 2010, England
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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