Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the Italian elderly population and projections from 2020 to 2060 for Italy and the European Union: the FAI Project

Abstract

Aims: To estimate prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in a representative sample of the Italian elderly population, projecting figures for Italy and the European Union.

Methods and results: A cross-sectional examination of all subjects aged 65+ years from three general practices in Northern, Central, and Southern Italy started in 2016. Participants were administered a systematic and an opportunistic screening, followed by clinical and electrocardiogram confirmation. The study sample included 6016 subjects. Excluding 235 non-eligible, among the remaining 5781 participation was 78.3%, which left 4528 participants (mean age 74.5 ± 6.8 years, 47.2% men). Prevalence of AF was 7.3% [95% confidence intervals (CI) 6.6-8.1], higher in men and with advancing age (6.6% from systematic plus 0.7% from opportunistic screening). Using prevalence figures, Italian elderly having AF in 2016 were estimated at ∼1 081 000 (95% CI 786 000-1 482 000). Considering stable prevalence, this number will increase by 75% to ∼1 892 000 in 2060 (95% CI 1 378 000-2 579 000). European Union elderly having AF in 2016 were estimated at ∼7 617 000 (95% CI 5 530 000-10 460 000), increasing by 89% to ∼14 401 000 in 2060 (95% CI 10 489 000-19 647 000). In 2016, subjects aged 80+ years represented 53.5% of cases in Italy and 51.2% in the European Union; in 2060, 69.6% and 65.2%, respectively.

Conclusions: Our findings indicate a high burden of AF in coming decades, especially among the oldest-old, who carry the higher AF-related risk of stroke and medical complications.

Keywords: Atrial fibrillation; Epidemiology; European Union; Prevalence; Projections.