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. 2019 Jun 2;16(11):1959.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph16111959.

Understanding the Increase in Life Expectancy in Hong Kong: Contributions of Changes in Age- and Cause-Specific Mortality

Yan Zheng  1 , Qingsong Chang  2 , Paul Siu Fai Yip  3
Affiliations

Understanding the Increase in Life Expectancy in Hong Kong: Contributions of Changes in Age- and Cause-Specific Mortality

Yan Zheng et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

To assess the mechanism responsible for the improvement in life expectancy in Hong Kong over the past several decades, Arriaga's decomposition method was applied to quantify the influence of the age structure and the leading causes of death on the increase in life expectancy in Hong Kong from 1986 to 2015. Our results showed that, during the observed period, the major contribution to the improvement in life expectancy in Hong Kong was attributable to the older population for both males and females. Contributions of malignant neoplasms in the period of 1986-1995, 1996-2005 and 2006-2015 were 0.613, 0.279 and 0.887 years in males and 0.391, 0.312 and 0.226 years in females, respectively. For circulatory diseases, the corresponding figures were 1.452, 0.202 and 0.832 years in males and 0.675, 0.192 and 1.069 years in females, with the largest contribution also shifting to older ages. However, these positive contributions were partly offset by the negative contribution of pneumonia, especially among those at advanced ages. Furthermore, although the impact was limited, attention should also be paid to the prevalence of some chronic diseases among the younger age groups in recent years.

Keywords: life expectancy; mortality; public health policy.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure A1
Figure A1
Mortality change in Hong Kong between 1986 and 2015: (a) Males and (b) Females.
Figure 1
Figure 1
Arriaga’s decomposition of the change in life expectancy by age group between 1986 and 2015 in Hong Kong: (a) Males; (b) Females.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Arriaga’s decomposition of the change in life expectancy by age group and major causes of death in 1986–2015 in Hong Kong: (a) Contributions by males in 1986–1995; (b) Contributions by males in 1996–2005; (c) Contributions by males in 2006–2015; (d) Contributions by females in 1986–1995; (e) Contributions by females in 1996–2005; and (f) Contributions by females in 2006–2015.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Arriaga’s decomposition of the change in life expectancy by age group and major causes of death in 1986–2015 in Hong Kong: (a) Contributions by males in 1986–1995; (b) Contributions by males in 1996–2005; (c) Contributions by males in 2006–2015; (d) Contributions by females in 1986–1995; (e) Contributions by females in 1996–2005; and (f) Contributions by females in 2006–2015.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Arriaga’s decomposition of the change in life expectancy by age group and major causes of death in 1986–2015 in Hong Kong: (a) Contributions by males in 1986–1995; (b) Contributions by males in 1996–2005; (c) Contributions by males in 2006–2015; (d) Contributions by females in 1986–1995; (e) Contributions by females in 1996–2005; and (f) Contributions by females in 2006–2015.
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