Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict

Katharine J Mach¹, Caroline M Kraan², W Neil Adger³, Halvard Buhaug^{4

5}, Marshall Burke^{6

7}, James D Fearon⁸, Christopher B Field², Cullen S Hendrix^{9

10}, Jean-Francois Maystadt^{11

12}, John O'Loughlin¹³, Philip Roessler¹⁴, Jürgen Scheffran¹⁵, Kenneth A Schultz⁸, Nina von Uexkull^{4

16}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. mach@stanford.edu.
² Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
³ Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
⁴ Peace Research Institute Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
⁵ Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.
⁶ Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
⁷ National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, USA.
⁸ Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
⁹ Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO, USA.
¹⁰ Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC, USA.
¹¹ Institute of Development Policy (IOB), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
¹² Department of Economics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.
¹³ Institute of Behavioral Science and Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
¹⁴ Department of Government, William & Mary, Williamsburg, VA, USA.
¹⁵ Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC), Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.
¹⁶ Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.

PMID: 31189956
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6

Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict

Katharine J Mach et al. Nature. 2019 Jul.

. 2019 Jul;571(7764):193-197.

doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6. Epub 2019 Jun 12.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. mach@stanford.edu.
² Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
³ Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
⁴ Peace Research Institute Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
⁵ Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.
⁶ Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
⁷ National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, USA.
⁸ Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
⁹ Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO, USA.
¹⁰ Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC, USA.
¹¹ Institute of Development Policy (IOB), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
¹² Department of Economics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.
¹³ Institute of Behavioral Science and Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
¹⁴ Department of Government, William & Mary, Williamsburg, VA, USA.
¹⁵ Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC), Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.
¹⁶ Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.

PMID: 31189956
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6

Abstract

Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate-conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.

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References

1. Burke, M. B., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J. A. & Lobell, D. B. Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 20670–20674 (2009). - DOI
1. Adger, W. N. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 755–791 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
1. Buhaug, H. Climate not to blame for African civil wars. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 16477–16482 (2010). - DOI
1. Hsiang, S. M., Burke, M. & Miguel, E. Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict. Science 341, 1235367 (2013). - DOI
1. Buhaug, H. et al. One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict. Clim. Change 127, 391–397 (2014). - DOI

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Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict

Affiliations

Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

References

MeSH terms

LinkOut - more resources

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