Multivariate analysis of the factors affecting the prognosis of walled-off pancreatic necrosis after endoscopic ultrasound-guided drainage

Abstract

Background and aims: Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided drainage has become the treatment of choice for walled-off pancreatic necrosis (WOPN). However, no consensus exists on the most significant patient- and procedure-related factors that affect prognosis. The aim of the study is to investigate the correlation between patient- and procedure-related factors and post-procedure complications after EUS-guided drainage.

Methods: A retrospective analysis of the clinical characteristics of patients with WOPN who underwent EUS-guided drainage at our endoscopy center between November 2011 and August 2017 was performed. Chi-square analysis and binary logistic regression statistical methods were used to analyze the correlation between influencing factors and prognosis.

Results: A total of 85 patients (male/female, 50/35) with WOPN were included in the study. The average age was 44.95 years. The cyst diameter was 10.58 ± 4.78 cm. Multivariate analysis showed that WOPN with higher solid content (> 30%) increased the probability of endoscopic necrosectomy (OR 6.798; 95% CI 1.423, 32.470; p = 0.016). The use of a metal stent increased the probability of endoscopic necrosectomy (OR 3.503; 95% CI 1.251, 9.810; p = 0.017) and the length of hospitalization (OR 3.315; 95% CI 1.192, 9.215; p = 0.022). Female patients had a higher probability of requiring endoscopic necrosectomy (OR 2.683; 95% CI 1.027, 7.007; p = 0.044) and prolonged hospitalization (OR 2.675; 95% CI 1.065, 6.721; p = 0.036).

Conclusion: The solid content of WOPN, type of stent, and sex of patients were associated with increased probability of endoscopic necrosectomy.

Keywords: Endoscopic necrosectomy; Multifactor analysis; Prognosis; Walled-off pancreatic necrosis.