CT radiomics may predict the grade of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: a multicenter study

Abstract

Objective: To develop and validate a radiomics-based nomogram for preoperatively predicting grade 1 and grade 2/3 tumors in patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs).

Methods: One hundred thirty-eight patients derived from two institutions with pathologically confirmed PNETs (104 in the training cohort and 34 in the validation cohort) were included in this retrospective study. A total of 853 radiomic features were extracted from arterial and portal venous phase CT images respectively. Minimum redundancy maximum relevance and random forest methods were adopted for the significant radiomic feature selection and radiomic signature construction. A fusion radiomic signature was generated by combining both the single-phase signatures. The nomogram based on a comprehensive model incorporating the clinical risk factors and the fusion radiomic signature was established, and decision curve analysis was applied for clinical use.

Results: The fusion radiomic signature has significant association with histologic grade (p < 0.001). The nomogram integrating independent clinical risk factor tumor margin and fusion radiomic signature showed strong discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.974 (95% CI 0.950-0.998) in the training cohort and 0.902 (95% CI 0.798-1.000) in the validation cohort with good calibration. Decision curve analysis verified the clinical usefulness of the predictive nomogram.

Conclusion: We proposed a comprehensive nomogram consisting of tumor margin and fusion radiomic signature as a powerful tool to predict grade 1 and grade 2/3 PNET preoperatively and assist the clinical decision-making for PNET patients.

Key points: • Radiomic signature has strong discriminatory ability for the histologic grade of PNETs. • Arterial and portal venous phase CT imaging are complementary for the prediction of PNET grading. • The comprehensive nomogram outperformed clinical factors in assisting therapy strategy in PNET patients.

Keywords: CT; Neoplasm grading; Neuroendocrine tumor; Pancreas; Radiomics.