AIDS in Europe: current trends and short-term predictions estimated from surveillance data, January 1981-June 1986

Abstract

European AIDS surveillance data, reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre on AIDS, Paris by 30 June 1986, have been analysed statistically to assess current trends and to provide short-term predictions. Reported case numbers were first adjusted to allow for the estimated time delays between diagnosis and reporting. The adjusted data (cases per half-year of diagnosis) were then fitted using exponential functions over selected time intervals to monitor and compare the evolution of the epidemic in individual countries and in the European Community (EC) as a whole. Predictions to mid-1988 were made by extrapolation. Results are presented for the EC and for the following individual countries: Belgium, Denmark, France, Federal Republic of Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.