Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2019 Jun 6:10:1246.
doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2019.01246. eCollection 2019.

Coach Turnover in Top Professional Brazilian Football Championship: A Multilevel Survival Analysis

Alexandre B Tozetto  1   2 , Humberto M Carvalho  2 , Rodolfo S Rosa  2 , Felipe G Mendes  2 , Walan R Silva  1 , Juarez V Nascimento  2 , Michel Milistetd  2
Affiliations

Coach Turnover in Top Professional Brazilian Football Championship: A Multilevel Survival Analysis

Alexandre B Tozetto et al. Front Psychol. .

Abstract

In this study, we examined the probability of coaches' survival in the top Brazilian professional football championship considering variation across the competitive seasons between 2012 and 2017, considering a multilevel framework. We also considered whether previous coaching experience in the top Brazilian professional football championship would change the probability of coaches' survival across the season. The data considered 4,560 games from the top professional Brazilian football league (Campeonato Brasileiro Série A) between the 2012 and 2017 seasons. At the start of each season, the coach from each team was followed, being recorded at the time the event occurred, i.e., the coach being sacked. A total survival of 120 coaches was considered between the seasons of 2012 and 2017, i.e., 20 coaches at the beginning of each season. Coaches were assigned as novice (no previous experience as head coach in the top Brazilian championship) or experienced (with at least some previous experience as head coach in the top Brazilian championship). Data were available and extracted from the official website of the Brazilian Football Confederation. On average and considering un-pooled observations, the median life of a coach was about 16.5 rounds. Considering variation between 2012 and 2017 seasons, only about 26.3% (95% CI: 18.2-36.1) of the coaches ended a season without being sacked. By mid-season, at round 19, the probability of coaches' survival was 0.42 (95% CI: 0.32-0.53). Variation between season on survival estimates per round was substantial (between-season standard deviation = 0.48, 95% credible intervals: 0.25-0.95; corresponding to an inverse logit = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.56-0.72). There was no substantial variation between novice and experienced coaches' survival probability. The present results expose the vulnerability of the coaching context in Brazilian football, potentially highlighting an excessive emphasis on short-term results to mediate club management decisions.

Keywords: bayesian methods; employment; proportional hazards models; soccer; work performance.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Sample survival function for round at coach dismissal among 120 coaches between 2012 and 2017.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Audas R., Dobson S., Goddard J. (1997). Team performance and managerial change in the English Football League. Econ. Aff. 17, 30–36. 10.1111/1468-0270.00039 - DOI
    1. Bachan R., Reilly B., Witt R. (2008). The hazard of being an English football league manager: empirical estimates for three recent league seasons. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 59, 884–891. 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602408 - DOI
    1. Balduck A.-L., Buelens M., Philippaerts R. (2010). Short-term effects of midseason coach turnover on team performance in soccer. Res. Q. Exerc. Sport 81, 379–383. 10.1080/02701367.2010.10599686, PMID: - DOI - PubMed
    1. Barros C. P., Frick B., Passos J. (2009). Coaching for survival: the hazards of head coach careers in the German “Bundesliga”. Appl. Econ. 41, 3303–3311. 10.1080/00036840701721455 - DOI
    1. Bell A., Brooks C., Markham T. (2013). The performance of football club managers: skill or luck? Econ. Financ. Res. 1, 19–30. 10.1080/21649480.2013.768829 - DOI

LinkOut - more resources