Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2019 Jun 2;10(11):2588-2593.
doi: 10.7150/jca.29606. eCollection 2019.

Developing a multivariable normal tissue complication probability model to predict late rectal bleeding following intensity-modulated radiation therapy

Chun-Chieh Huang  1   2 , Pei-Ju Chao  1   3 , Shih-Sian Guo  1   3 , Chong-Jong Wang  1 , Hao-Lun Luo  4 , Yu-Li Su  5 , Tsair-Fwu Lee  1   3   6 , Fu-Min Fang  1
Affiliations

Developing a multivariable normal tissue complication probability model to predict late rectal bleeding following intensity-modulated radiation therapy

Chun-Chieh Huang et al. J Cancer. .

Abstract

Purpose: To develop a multivariable normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model to predict moderate to severe late rectal bleeding following intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). Methods and materials: Sixty-eight patients with localized prostate cancer treated by IMRT from 2008 to 2011 were enrolled. The median follow-up time was 56 months. According to the criteria of D'Amico risk classifications, there were 9, 20 and 39 patients in low, intermediate and high-risk groups, respectively. Forty-two patients were combined with androgen deprivation therapy. Fifteen patients had suffered from grade 2 or more (grade 2+) late rectal bleeding. The numbers of predictors for a multivariable logistic regression NTCP model were determined by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Results: The most important predictors for late rectal bleeding ranked by LASSO were platelet count, risk group and the relative volume of rectum receiving at least 65 Gy (V65). The NTCP model of grade 2+ rectal bleeding was as follows: S = -17.49 + Platelets (1000/μL) * (-0.025) + Risk group * Corresponding coefficient (low-risk group = 0; intermediate-risk group = 19.07; high-risk group = 20.41) + V65 * 0.045. Conclusions: A LASSO-based multivariable NTCP model comprising three important predictors (platelet count, risk group and V65) was established to predict the incidence of grade 2+ late rectal bleeding after IMRT.

Keywords: normal tissue complication probability; prostate cancer; radiation therapy; rectal bleeding.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interest exists.

References

    1. Lee TF, Liou MH, Huang YJ, Chao PJ, Ting HM, Lee HY. et al. LASSO NTCP predictors for the incidence of xerostomia in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma and nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Sci Rep. 2014;4:6217. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Xu CJ, van der Schaaf A, Schilstra C, Langendijk JA, van't Veld AA. Impact of statistical learning methods on the predictive power of multivariate normal tissue complication probability models. Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys. 2012;82:e677–84. - PubMed
    1. Colombani C, Legarra A, Fritz S, Guillaume F, Croiseau P, Ducrocq V. et al. Application of Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and BayesCpi methods for genomic selection in French Holstein and Montbeliarde breeds. J Dairy Sci. 2013;96:575–91. - PubMed
    1. Xu J, Yin J. Kernel least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression classifier for pattern classification. IET Computer Vision. 2013;7:48–55.
    1. Ramsey SD, Andersen MR, Etzioni R, Moinpour C, Peacock S, Potosky A. et al. Quality of life in survivors of colorectal carcinoma. Cancer. 2000;88:1294–303. - PubMed