Epidemiological And Health Systems Implications Of Evolving HIV And Hypertension In South Africa And Kenya

Affiliations

¹ Brianna Osetinsky is a PhD candidate in the Department of Health Services, Policy, and Practice, Brown University School of Public Health, in Providence, Rhode Island.
² Jan A. C. Hontelez is an assistant professor in the Department of Public Health at Erasmus MC, Erasmus University Rotterdam, in the Netherlands, and at the Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University, in Germany.
³ Mark N. Lurie is an associate professor in the Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health.
⁴ Stephen T. McGarvey is director of the International Health Institute and a professor in the Department of Epidemiology, both at the Brown University School of Public Health.
⁵ Gerald S. Bloomfield is an associate professor in the Department of Medicine and Global Health, Duke University School of Medicine, in Durham, North Carolina.
⁶ Sonak D. Pastakia is a professor of pharmacy practice with the Purdue Kenya Partnership, Purdue University College of Pharmacy, in Eldoret, Kenya.
⁷ Richard Wamai is an associate professor in the Department of Cultures, Societies, and Global Studies, Northeastern University, in Boston, Massachusetts.
⁸ Till Bärnighausen is the Alexander von Humboldt University Professor and director of the Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University. He is also senior faculty at the Africa Health Research Institute, in Somkhele, South Africa, and an adjunct professor of global health at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, in Boston.
⁹ Sake J. de Vlas is a professor in the Department of Public Health at Erasmus MC, Erasmus University Rotterdam.
¹⁰ Omar Galárraga ( omar_galarraga@brown.edu ) is an associate professor in the Department of Health Services, Policy, and Practice, Brown University School of Public Health.

PMID: 31260360
PMCID: PMC7983613
DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2018.05287

Epidemiological And Health Systems Implications Of Evolving HIV And Hypertension In South Africa And Kenya

Brianna Osetinsky et al. Health Aff (Millwood). 2019 Jul.

. 2019 Jul;38(7):1173-1181.

doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2018.05287.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Brianna Osetinsky is a PhD candidate in the Department of Health Services, Policy, and Practice, Brown University School of Public Health, in Providence, Rhode Island.
² Jan A. C. Hontelez is an assistant professor in the Department of Public Health at Erasmus MC, Erasmus University Rotterdam, in the Netherlands, and at the Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University, in Germany.
³ Mark N. Lurie is an associate professor in the Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health.
⁴ Stephen T. McGarvey is director of the International Health Institute and a professor in the Department of Epidemiology, both at the Brown University School of Public Health.
⁵ Gerald S. Bloomfield is an associate professor in the Department of Medicine and Global Health, Duke University School of Medicine, in Durham, North Carolina.
⁶ Sonak D. Pastakia is a professor of pharmacy practice with the Purdue Kenya Partnership, Purdue University College of Pharmacy, in Eldoret, Kenya.
⁷ Richard Wamai is an associate professor in the Department of Cultures, Societies, and Global Studies, Northeastern University, in Boston, Massachusetts.
⁸ Till Bärnighausen is the Alexander von Humboldt University Professor and director of the Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University. He is also senior faculty at the Africa Health Research Institute, in Somkhele, South Africa, and an adjunct professor of global health at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, in Boston.
⁹ Sake J. de Vlas is a professor in the Department of Public Health at Erasmus MC, Erasmus University Rotterdam.
¹⁰ Omar Galárraga ( omar_galarraga@brown.edu ) is an associate professor in the Department of Health Services, Policy, and Practice, Brown University School of Public Health.

PMID: 31260360
PMCID: PMC7983613
DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2018.05287

Abstract

Health systems in sub-Saharan Africa are facing an ongoing HIV epidemic and increasing burden of noncommunicable disease. With the focus shifting to the development of comprehensive primary health care and chronic disease treatment, multidisease modeling is integral to estimating future health care needs. We extended an established agent-based model of HIV transmission to include hypertension in two rural settings: KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and western Kenya. We estimated that from 2018 to 2028 hypertension prevalence would increase from 40 percent to 46 percent in KwaZulu-Natal and from 29 percent to 35 percent in western Kenya, while HIV prevalence is stabilizing and predicted to decrease. As the health system burden in sub-Saharan Africa is changing, innovative chronic disease treatment and the broadening of successful programs, such as integrated HIV and noncommunicable disease care, are necessary to reach universal health care coverage.

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Figures

**EXHIBIT 1. Projected percent of people in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, with hypertension, HIV, or both, 2018–28**
**SOURCE** Authors’ analysis of data from an STDSIM simulation. **NOTE** The shaded areas represent 95% uncertainty intervals.

**EXHIBIT 2. Projected percent of people in western Kenya with hypertension, HIV, or both, 2018–28**
**SOURCE** Authors’ analysis of data from an STDSIM simulation. **NOTE** The shaded areas represent 95% uncertainty intervals.

**EXHIBIT 4. Hypertension treatment scenarios for KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and western Kenya in 2028**
**SOURCE** Authors’ analysis of data from an STDSIM simulation; Shisana O, et al. The South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2012 (note 37 in text); and Kenya Ministry of Health. Kenya STEPwise Survey for Non Communicable Diseases Risk Factors 2015 report (note 26 in text). **NOTE** The treatment target is for 50 percent of people with hypertension to receive care for it.

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Epidemiological And Health Systems Implications Of Evolving HIV And Hypertension In South Africa And Kenya

Affiliations

Epidemiological And Health Systems Implications Of Evolving HIV And Hypertension In South Africa And Kenya

Authors

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