The spatio-temporal analysis of the incidence of tuberculosis and the associated factors in mainland China, 2009-2015

Abstract

Background: Tuberculosis is still one of the most infectious diseases in China. This study aimed to explore the spatio-temporal distribution of TB and the associated factors in mainland China from 2009 to 2015.

Methods: A Bayesian spatio-temporal model was utilized to analyse the correlation of socio-economic, healthcare, demographic and meteorological factors with the population level number of TB.

Results: The Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis showed that for the population level number of TB, the estimated parameters of the ratio of males to females, the number of beds in medical institutions, the population density, the proportion of the population that is rural, the amount of precipitation, the largest wind speed and the sunshine duration were 0.556, 0.197, 0.199, 29.03,0.1958, 0.0854 and 0.2117, respectively, demonstrating positive associations. However, health personnel, per capita annual gross domestic product, minimum temperature and humidity indicated negative associations, and the corresponding parameters were -0.050, -0.095, -0.0022 and -0.0070, respectively.

Conclusions: Socio-economic, number of health personnel, demographic and meteorological factors could affect the case notification number of TB to different degrees and in different directions.

Keywords: Associated factors; Bayesian spatio-temporal model; Sputum smear positive/negative tuberculosis; Tuberculosis.