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. 2019 Jun 2;10(14):3246-3252.
doi: 10.7150/jca.30046. eCollection 2019.

A Nomogram for Prediction of Overall Survival in Patients with Node-negative Gallbladder Cancer

Mingyu Chen  1   2   3 , Jiasheng Cao  1 , Bin Zhang  1 , Long Pan  1 , Xiujun Cai  1   2   3
Affiliations

A Nomogram for Prediction of Overall Survival in Patients with Node-negative Gallbladder Cancer

Mingyu Chen et al. J Cancer. .

Abstract

Background & Aims: According to the stage of tumor, it's hard suitable to predict the prognosis for gallbladder cancer, especially for node-negative gallbladder cancer. Therefore, we aimed to create a nomogram based on demographic and clinicopathologic characteristics to estimate individualized potential impacts on postoperative overall survival. Methods: 789 patients with node-negative gallbladder cancer were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results and randomly divided into training and internal validation group. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis were used to identify prognostic factors. The nomogram was constructed using Cox proportional hazards models. We evaluated the performance of the nomogram with Harrell's concordance index and calibration curve. The nomogram was externally validated in 115 patients with node-negative gallbladder cancer from the Sir Run Run Shaw hospital. Results: The nomogram for overall survival was built on the basis of five independent factors, such as age, sex, histology, T-stage, and number of examined lymph nodes. The C-index of nomogram for overall survival in the internal and external validation group was up to 0.724 and 0.716, respectively. Both of those calibration curves showed good agreement between predicted and observed outcomes in the 1-, 3-, 5-year overall survival. Compared to the 7th edition AJCC stage, the nomogram had a better difference in predicting overall survival, even could further classify patients into four risk subgroups in each stage. Conclusion: This nomogram can be used as a decision model to predict the outcomes of postoperative overall survival for node-negative gallbladder cancer, and may give useful guidance to clinicians for next treatment.

Keywords: gallbladder cancer; node-negative; nomogram; overall survival.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interest exists.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Flowchart showing selecting of SEER database for training and internal validation group.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Nomogram for estimating the 1-,3-, 5- year OS for node-negative GBC patients.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Internal and external calibration curves demonstrating how survival predictions from the model compare to the actual observed survival (A: Internal calibration curves for 1-,3-, 5- year OS, B: External calibration curves for 1-,3-, 5- year OS)
Figure 4
Figure 4
Survival curves of four risk subgroups in each 7thed AJCC Stage Group.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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