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. 2019 Sep;10(9):1788-1797.
doi: 10.1111/1759-7714.13148. Epub 2019 Jul 18.

Nomogram to predict cause-specific mortality in extensive-stage small cell lung cancer: A competing risk analysis

Jia Zhong  1 , Qiwen Zheng  2 , Tongtong An  1 , Jun Zhao  1 , Meina Wu  1 , Yuyan Wang  1 , Minglei Zhuo  1 , Jianjie Li  1 , Xinghui Zhao, Xue Yang  1 , Bo Jia  1 , Hanxiao Chen  1 , Zhi Dong  1 , Jingjing Wang  1 , Yujia Chi  1 , Xiaoyu Zhai  1 , Ziping Wang  1
Affiliations

Nomogram to predict cause-specific mortality in extensive-stage small cell lung cancer: A competing risk analysis

Jia Zhong et al. Thorac Cancer. 2019 Sep.

Abstract

Background: Small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) is one of the most aggressive types of lung cancer. The prognosis for SCLC patients depends on many factors. The intent of this study was to construct a nomogram model to predict mortality for extensive-stage SCLC.

Methods: Original data was collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of the National Cancer Institute in the United States. A nomogram prognostic model was constructed to predict death probability for extensive-stage SCLC.

Results: A total of 16 554 extensive-stage SCLC patients from 2004 to 2014 in the SEER database were included in this study. Gender, race, age, TNM staging (including tumor extent, nodal status, and metastasis), and treatment (surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy) were identified as independent predictors for lung cancer-specific death for extensive-stage SCLC patients. A nomogram model was constructed based on multivariate models for lung cancer related death and other cause related death. Performance of the two models was validated by calibration and discrimination, with C-index values of 0.714 and 0.638, respectively.

Conclusion: A prognostic nomogram model was established to predict death probability for extensive-stage SCLC. This validated prognostic model may be beneficial for treatment strategy choice and survival prediction.

Keywords: Small cell lung cancer; mortality; nomogram.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Flow chart of study patients’ selection.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Cumulative incidence estimates of death according to patient characteristics (solid line indicates cause‐specific death; dotted lineindicates other causes of death).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Nomogram for predicting 3, 6, and 12 month probabilities of (a) lung cancer death and (b) other causes death in Extensive‐stage patients.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Calibration plot of the nomogram in the original cohort. The x‐axis represents the mean predicted probability of the conditional cumulative incidence model. The y‐axis represents observed cumulative incidence of death. The solid line represents equality between the predicted and observed probability.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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