Gaps between fruit and vegetable production, demand, and recommended consumption at global and national levels: an integrated modelling study

Abstract

Background: Current diets are detrimental to both human and planetary health and shifting towards more balanced, predominantly plant-based diets is seen as crucial to improving both. Low fruit and vegetable consumption is itself a major nutritional problem. We aim to better quantify the gap between future fruit and vegetable supply and recommended consumption levels by exploring the interactions between supply and demand in more than 150 countries from 1961 to 2050.

Methods: In this global analysis, we use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade, which simulates the global agricultural sector, to explore the role of insufficient production of fruits and vegetables and the effects of food waste and public policy in achieving recommended fruit and vegetable consumption. First, we estimate the average historical (1961-2010) and future (2010-50) national consumption levels needed to meet WHO targets (a minimum target of 400 g/person per day or age-specific recommendations of 330-600 g/person per day) using population pyramids; for future consumption, we use projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of global socioeconomic scenarios characterised by varied assumptions on economic and population growth. We then simulate future fruit and vegetable production and demand to 2050 under three such scenarios (SSP1-3) to assess the potential impacts of economic, demographic, and technological change on consumer and producer behaviour. We then explore the potential effects of food waste applying various waste assumptions (0-33% waste). Finally, we apply two policy analysis frameworks (the NOURISHING framework and the Nuffield ladder) to assess the current state of public policy designed to achieve healthy diets.

Findings: Historically, fruit and vegetable availability has consistently been insufficient to supply recommended consumption levels. By 2015, 81 countries representing 55% of the global population had average fruit and vegetable availability above WHO's minimum target. Under more stringent age-specific recommendations, only 40 countries representing 36% of the global population had adequate availability. Although economic growth will help to increase fruit and vegetable availability in the future, particularly in lower-income countries, this alone will be insufficient. Even under the most optimistic socioeconomic scenarios (excluding food waste), many countries fail to achieve sufficient fruit and vegetable availability to meet even the minimum recommended target. Sub-Saharan Africa is a particular region of concern, with projections suggesting, by 2050, between 0·8 and 1·9 billion people could live in countries with average fruit and vegetable availability below 400 g/person per day. Food waste is a serious obstacle that could erode projected gains. Assuming 33% waste and socioeconomic trends similar to historical patterns, the global average availability in 2050 falls below age-specific recommendations, increasing the number of people living in countries with insufficient supply of fruits and vegetables by 1·5 billion compared with a zero waste scenario.

Interpretation: Increasing fruit and vegetable consumption is an important component of a shift towards healthier and more sustainable diets. Economic modelling suggests that even under optimistic socioeconomic scenarios future supply will be insufficient to achieve recommended levels in many countries. Consequently, systematic public policy targeting the constraints to producing and consuming fruits and vegetables will be needed. This will require a portfolio of interventions and investments that focus on increasing fruit and vegetable production, developing technologies and practices to reduce waste without increasing the consumer cost, and increasing existing efforts to educate consumers on healthy diets.

Funding: The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation; Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CGIAR) Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security; CGIAR Research Program on Policy, Institutions, and Markets; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Johns Hopkins University.

Figure 1

Selected country ratios of fruit and vegetable availability to WHO age-specific recommendations Countries shown were chosen to provide a representative group of countries from each region, including the maximum and minimum across the region. Countries in each region are listed in descending order by 2010 population. Food availability excludes consumer food waste. 1965 and 1990 values are from FAOSTAT commodity balance sheets and 2015 and 2050 values are projections from IMPACT using three scenarios (SSP1–3) using default diets (based on historical trends). Vegetables follow WHO definitions excluding legumes and starchy roots and tubers. The vertical lines represent when availability (excluding waste) equals one times (red), two times (grey), and three times (green) the population weighted average recommended consumption levels. IMPACT=International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade. SSP=Shared Socioeconomic Pathway. *Data up to 1990 are presented for the former Soviet Union as a whole, whereas data from 2015 onwards are presented separately for Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.

Figure 2

Regional summary of ratios of average fruit and vegetable availability to recommended consumption levels including and not including various levels of food waste Projections are considered under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2. Availability is population-weighted average for each region. Recommended consumption levels are 330–600 g/person per day, depending on age. FAO=Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. *FAO waste estimates vary by region and range from 5% in sub-Saharan Africa to 28% in east Asia and Pacific and North America. †Fails to achieve the 400 g/person per day minimum recommendation. ‡Includes Baltic states.

Figure 3

Summary of policy interventions in the NOURISHING database related to fruits and vegetables grouped by region and mapped to the Nuffield ladder Figure shows the number of countries for which the NOURISHING database describes either a minimum quantity of fruits and vegetables to be provided or some other activity that specifically promotes increased consumption of fruits or vegetables. No country examples were found for three Nuffield ladder policy options—guide choice with disincentives, restrict choice, and eliminate choice—which are therefore not presented on the figure. Some policies pertaining to general healthy eating, without specific mention of activities regarding promotion of increased consumption of fruits or vegetables, are excluded from this count. Regional policies are converted to country counts by assuming 28 countries are included in the EU, 15 countries in the Caribbean Community group, and 22 countries in Pacific Island Nations and Territories group.