Projecting Cancer Incidence for 2025 in the 2 Largest Populated Cities in Vietnam

Abstract

The population size and projected demographics of Vietnam's 2 largest cities, Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) and Hanoi, will change dramatically over the next decade. Demographic changes in an aging population coupled with income growth and changes in lifestyle will result in a very different distribution of common cancers in the future. The study aimed to project the number of cancer incidence in the 2 largest populated cities in Vietnam for the year 2025. Cancer incidence data from 2004 to 2013 collected from population-based cancer registries in these 2 cities were provided by Vietnam National Cancer Institute. Incidence cases in 2013 and the previous decades average annual percent changes of age-standardized cancer incidence rates combined with expected population growth were modeled to project cancer incidence for each cancer site by gender to 2025. A substantial double in cancer incidence from 2013 to 2025 resulted from a growing and aging population in HCMC and Hanoi. Lung, colorectum, breast, thyroid, and liver cancers, which represent 67% of the overall cancer burden, are projected to become the leading cancer diagnoses by 2025 regardless of genders. For men, the leading cancer sites in 2025 are predicted to be lung, colorectum, esophagus, liver, and pharynx cancer, and among women, they are expected to be breast, thyroid, colorectum, lung, and cervical cancer. We projected an epidemiological transition from infectious-associated cancers to a high burden of cancers that have mainly been attributed to lifestyle in both cities. We predicted that with 16.9% growth in the overall population and dramatic aging with these 2 urban centers, the burdens of cancer incidence will increase sharply in both cities over the next decades. Data on projections of cancer incidence in both cities provide useful insights for directing appropriate policies and cancer control programs in Vietnam.

Keywords: age-standardized cancer incidence rates; cancer incidence; demographic shifts; projections; average annual percent changes.

Figure 1.

Age structure of the population in Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, and the entire of Vietnam in 2009 and 2030 (Data source: General Statistics Office).

Figure 2.

Observed and projected cancer incidence for all cancer sites and 5 common cancer sites in 2025, stratified by gender in Ho Chi Minh City.

Figure 3.

Observed and projected cancer incidence for all cancer sites and 5 common cancer sites in 2025, stratified by gender in Hanoi (the number of cancer cases during 2004-2009 was estimated for a combination of old Hanoi and Ha Tay province).