Can we predict the IVF/ICSI live birth rate?

Abstract

Objectives: To find a pretreatment predictor for achieving a live birth. Assisted reproduction technology with IVF/ICSI is the ultimate chance for some couples to conceive a child. The expectations are high and it is important to give them a realistic perspective about the chances of achieving a live birth.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study of all IVF/ICSI cycles performed in our center between 2012 and 2016. We considered only those cycles with a live birth delivery after 24 weeks, or cycles with no surplus embryos left. The following data was evaluated: AMH; AFC; age; BMI; previous diagnosis; type of treatment; number of previous deliveries; ethnicity, smoking status. Univariate and multivariate analysis were used to examine the association of live birth with baseline patient characteristics. We determined the odds-ratio for all the statistically significant variables (p<0.05), in a multivariate model. The results are presented according to the predictors founded.

Results: 739 cycles were evaluated: 9.1% were canceled; 10.2% did not have oocytes; 15.6% did not have D2 embryos; 31.4% achieved a live birth. The univariate analysis revealed statistically significant differences regarding AMH, AFC and women's age between couples with and without a live birth (p<0.001), and the cause of infertility. We found no association with live births in other variables. These variables were categorized and used in a multivariate analysis.

Conclusion: Age, AMH, AFC and cause, when sub-classified, are independently associated with the results of an IVF/ICSI treatment. These results enable couples to face real expectations in their particular scenario.

Keywords: age; antimullerian hormone; antral follicle count; in vitro fertilization; live-birth rate; predictor.