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. 2019 Jan:147:e189.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268819000803.

Transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease in selected outbreak areas of northwest Ethiopia

B Tadesse  1 , W Molla  1 , A Mengsitu  1 , W T Jemberu  1
Affiliations

Transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease in selected outbreak areas of northwest Ethiopia

B Tadesse et al. Epidemiol Infect. 2019 Jan.

Abstract

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious and economically important disease of cloven-hoofed animals, which is endemic in Ethiopia. An outbreak follow-up study was undertaken to quantify the transmission parameters of FMD in the crop-livestock mixed (CLM) system and commercial dairy farms in selected areas of northwest Ethiopia. The transmission parameters were quantified using a generalised linear model (GLM) based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model. The per day average transmission rate between animals was 0.26 (95% CI 0.22-0.32) and 0.33 (95% CI 0.21-0.57) in the CLM system and in the commercial dairy farms, respectively. The average basic reproduction ratio of FMD was 1.68 (95% CI 1.42-2.07) in the CLM system and 1.98 (95% CI 1.26-3.42) in the commercial dairy farms. The medium per day transmission rate and moderate basic reproduction ratio observed in this study indicated that a vaccination coverage needed to stop transmission of the disease in these populations might not be very high.

Keywords: Cattle; foot and mouth disease; northwest Ethiopia; reproduction ratio; transmission rate.

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Conflict of interest statement

None.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Map of Amhara region showing FMD transmission study sites.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Epidemic curve of FMD in Estie district, northwest Ethiopia in 2017/18.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Epidemic curve of FMD in Enfranz area, northwest Ethiopia in 2017/18.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.
Epidemic curve of FMD in Tsion area, northwest Ethiopia in 2017/18.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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