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. 2019 Aug 20;116(34):16793-16798.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1821204116. Epub 2019 Aug 5.

Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age, race-ethnicity, and sex

Frank Edwards  1 , Hedwig Lee  2 , Michael Esposito  3
Affiliations

Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age, race-ethnicity, and sex

Frank Edwards et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

We use data on police-involved deaths to estimate how the risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States varies across social groups. We estimate the lifetime and age-specific risks of being killed by police by race and sex. We also provide estimates of the proportion of all deaths accounted for by police use of force. We find that African American men and women, American Indian/Alaska Native men and women, and Latino men face higher lifetime risk of being killed by police than do their white peers. We find that Latina women and Asian/Pacific Islander men and women face lower risk of being killed by police than do their white peers. Risk is highest for black men, who (at current levels of risk) face about a 1 in 1,000 chance of being killed by police over the life course. The average lifetime odds of being killed by police are about 1 in 2,000 for men and about 1 in 33,000 for women. Risk peaks between the ages of 20 y and 35 y for all groups. For young men of color, police use of force is among the leading causes of death.

Keywords: criminal justice; demography; public health; social inequality.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Lifetime risk of being killed by the police in the United States by sex and race–ethnicity for a synthetic cohort of 100,000 at 2013 to 2018 risk levels. Dashes indicate 90% posterior predictive uncertainty intervals. Life tables were calculated using model-based simulations from 2013 to 2018 Fatal Encounters data and 2017 National Vital Statistics System data.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Inequality in lifetime risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by sex and race–ethnicity at 2013 to 2018 risk levels. Dashes indicate 90% uncertainty intervals. Life tables were calculated using model simulations from 2013 to 2018 Fatal Encounters data and 2017 National Vital Statistics System data.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Age-specific risk of being killed by the police in the United States by sex and race–ethnicity at 2013 to 2018 risk levels, men and boys. Dashes indicate 90% posterior predictive uncertainty intervals. Life tables were calculated using model simulations from 2013 to 2018 Fatal Encounters data and 2017 National Vital Statistics System data.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.
Age-specific risk of being killed by the police in the United States by sex and race–ethnicity at 2013 to 2018 risk levels, women and girls. Dashes indicate 90% uncertainty intervals. Life tables were calculated using model simulations from 2013 to 2018 Fatal Encounters data and 2017 National Vital Statistics System data.
Fig. 5.
Fig. 5.
Deaths caused by police use of force (median model-based prediction) as a percentage of all deaths by age, race, and sex. Life tables were calculated using model simulations from 2013 to 2018 Fatal Encounters data and 2017 National Vital Statistics System data.
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