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. 2019 Sep 3;18(1):303.
doi: 10.1186/s12936-019-2933-5.

Malaria around large dams in Africa: effect of environmental and transmission endemicity factors

Solomon Kibret  1 , Jonathan Lautze  2 , Matthew McCartney  3 , Luxon Nhamo  2 , Guiyun Yan  4
Affiliations

Malaria around large dams in Africa: effect of environmental and transmission endemicity factors

Solomon Kibret et al. Malar J. .

Abstract

Background: The impact of large dams on malaria has received widespread attention. However, understanding how dam topography and transmission endemicity influence malaria incidences is limited.

Methods: Data from the European Commission's Joint Research Center and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission were used to determine reservoir perimeters and shoreline slope of African dams. Georeferenced data from the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) were used to estimate malaria incidence rates in communities near reservoir shorelines. Population data from the WorldPop database were used to estimate the population at risk of malaria around dams in stable and unstable areas.

Results: The data showed that people living near (< 5 km) large dams in sub-Saharan Africa grew from 14.4 million in 2000 to 18.7 million in 2015. Overall, across sub-Saharan Africa between 0.7 and 1.6 million malaria cases per year are attributable to large dams. Whilst annual malaria incidence declined markedly in both stable and unstable areas between 2000 and 2015, the malaria impact of dams appeared to increase in unstable areas, but decreased in stable areas. Shoreline slope was found to be the most important malaria risk factor in dam-affected geographies, explaining 41-82% (P < 0.001) of the variation in malaria incidence around reservoirs.

Conclusion: Gentler, more gradual shoreline slopes were associated with much greater malaria risk. Dam-related environmental variables such as dam topography and shoreline slopes are an important factor that should be considered in efforts to predict and control malaria around dams.

Keywords: Africa; Dams; Malaria; Reservoir shoreline; Slope; Topography.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Distribution of dams with respect to major malaria vectors across sub-Saharan Africa
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Temporal distribution of dams in relation to malaria stability in sub-Saharan Africa
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Relative risk of annual malaria incidence in communities close to (< 5 km) reservoir shorelines to those living farther away (5–10 km). The vertical bar indicates 95% CI. NS non-significant, *P < 0.05, **P < 0.001 for comparison of the relative risk of communities in stable area with those in unstable area
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Number of annual malaria cases attributable to presence of dams in stable and unstable areas of sub-Saharan Africa
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Box plot of malaria incidence against reservoir slope (the boxes show the 25th percentile, median and 75th percentile, and value ranges)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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