Multiple ecosystem services of a changing Alpine landscape: past, present and future

Abstract

In mountain regions, ecosystem services provision is strongly linked to land use, topography and climate, where impacts can be expected under global change. For our study site in the Austrian Alps, we examined the relationship between agricultural activities and multiple ecosystem services on landscape scale from past to future. Modelling of future land-use patterns was based on stakeholder workshops considering different socio-economic and climate scenarios. In the past, land-use intensity was reduced resulting in less forage provision but better regulating services. Future scenarios predict contrasting developments; under conditions of global change, farmers shift the focus of their activities towards tourism, but in times of global economic crisis farming becomes more important again. Developing the local economy facilitates new markets for agricultural products, but projected drought periods will cause an abandonment of farmland. While forest regeneration is valuable for regulating services, it reduces the aesthetic value. Both regulating and cultural services decrease when forage provision is optimized. To ensure multiple ecosystem service provision, agricultural management should be related to ecosystem services and included into land-use policies and agricultural incentives.

Keywords: GIS; aesthetic value; carbon sequestration; forage quality; forage quantity; natural hazard regulation; scenario; soil stability.

Figure 1

Location of study area in Europe (a) and in the Stubai Valley (b). Land-use pattern for the status quo of the study site ‘Kaserstattalm’ (c).

Figure 2

Ecosystem services of different land-use types for the status quo. Values are re-scaled to 0–100.

Figure 3

Landscape pattern of ecosystem services for the status quo. Values are re-scaled to 0–100. Historical development and future trends in normalized ecosystem services. All scores are normalized by their status quo levels.

Figure 4

Maps of contrasts of (a) the first component and (b) the second component for the status quo.

Figure 5

PCA plot of eigenvectors (component 1 × component 2) for the status quo.