The Incremental Risk of Pancreatic Cancer According to Fasting Glucose Levels: Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

Abstract

Context: It has been unclear whether the risk of pancreatic cancer is different according to glucose levels.

Objective: To determine the association between fasting glucose levels and pancreatic cancer risk using prospectively collected nationwide population-based cohort data in Korea.

Design: The National Health Insurance Service database of claims and preventive health check-up data recorded was used between 2009 and 2015.

Setting and participants: A total of 25.4 million patients who had participated in a preventive health check-up between 2009 and 2013 were evaluated for pancreatic cancer incidence rates according to fasting glucose level.

Main outcomes measures: The cumulative incidence rate for pancreatic cancer was calculated after grouping according to fasting glucose levels as follows: (i) low normal (<90 mg/dL), (ii) high normal (90 to 99 mg/dL), (iii) prediabetes level 1 (100 to 109 mg/dL), (iv) prediabetes level 2 (110 to 125 mg/dL), (v) diabetes (≥126 mg/dL), and (vi) diabetes on anti-diabetic medications.

Results: The 5-year cumulative incidence rates (per 100,000) were as follows: (i) low normal = 32; (ii) high normal = 41; (iii) prediabetes level 1 = 50; (iv) prediabetes level 2 = 64; (v) diabetes = 75; and (vi) on anti-diabetic medications = 121. The risk of pancreatic cancer increased continuously with elevating fasting glucose levels (P < 0.0001). The incidence of pancreatic cancer increased significantly with increasing fasting blood glucose levels even after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, drinking, exercise, body mass index, and diabetes duration (P < 0.0001).

Conclusions: The cumulative incidence rate of pancreatic cancer significantly increased as the fasting glucose level elevated, even in populations with a normal glucose level range.