Species energy and Thermal Performance Theory predict 20-yr changes in ant community abundance and richness
- PMID: 31505036
- DOI: 10.1002/ecy.2888
Species energy and Thermal Performance Theory predict 20-yr changes in ant community abundance and richness
Abstract
In an era of rapid climate change, and with it concern over insect declines, we used two theories to predict 20-yr changes in 34 North American ant communities. The ecosystems, from deserts to hardwood forests, were first surveyed in the 1990s. When resurveyed in 2016-2017, they averaged 1°C warmer with 200 g C·m-2 ·yr-1 higher plant productivity. Ant colony abundance changed from -49% to +61%. Consistent with Thermal Performance Theory, colony abundance increased with temperature increases < 1°C, then decreased as a site's mean monthly temperature change increased up to +2.4°C. Consistent with Species Energy Theory, (1) ant abundance tracked changes in a measure of energy availability (net aboveground productivity, g C·m-2 ·yr-1 ) and (2) increases in colony abundance drove increases in local plot- and transect-level species richness but not that of Chao 2, an estimate of the size of the species pool. Even after accounting for these drivers, local species richness was still higher ~20 yr after the original surveys, likely due to the increased activity of ant workers. These results suggest community changes are predictable using theory from geographical ecology, and that warming can first enhance but may ultimately decrease the abundance of this important insect taxon.
Keywords: ants; global change; insects; net primary productivity; species energy theory; temperature; thermal performance theory.
© 2019 by the Ecological Society of America.
References
Literature Cited
-
- Alignier, A. 2018. Two decades of change in a field margin vegetation metacommunity as a result of field margin structure and management practice changes. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 251:1-10.
-
- Angilletta, M. J. 2009. Thermal adaptation: a theoretical and empirical synthesis. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
-
- Bartoń, K. 2018. Package ‘MuMIn’. Model selection and model averaging based on information criteria (AICc and alike). R package. https://cran.r-project.org/package=MuMIn
-
- Boulay, R., J. A. Galarza, B. Chéron, A. Hefetz, A. Lenoir, L. V. Oudenhove, and X. Cerdá. 2010. Intraspecific competition affects population size and resource allocation in an ant dispersing by colony fission. Ecology 91:3312-3321.
-
- Brown, J. H., T. Valone, and C. Curtin. 1997. Reorganization of an arid ecosystem in response to recent climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 94:9729-9733.