Small Area Estimates of Populations With Chronic Conditions for Community Preparedness for Public Health Emergencies

Abstract

Objectives. To demonstrate a flexible and practical method to obtain near real-time estimates of the number of at-risk community-dwelling adults with a chronic condition in a defined area potentially affected by a public health emergency.Methods. We used small area estimation with survey responses from the 2016 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System together with a geographic information system to predict the number of adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease who lived in the forecasted path of Hurricane Florence in North and South Carolina in 2018.Results. We estimated that a range of 32 002 to 676 536 adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease resided between 50 and 200 miles of 3 consecutive daily forecasted landfalls. The number of affected counties ranged from 8 to 10 (at 50 miles) to as many as 119 to 127 (at 200 miles).Conclusions. Community preparedness is critical to anticipating, responding to, and ameliorating these health threats. We demonstrated the feasibility of quickly producing detailed estimates of the number of residents with chronic conditions who may face life-threatening situations because of a natural disaster. These methods are applicable to a range of planning and response scenarios.

FIGURE 1—

Forecasted Storm Tracks, Landfall Locations, and 50-, 100-, and 200-Mile Buffer Zones From Landfall for Hurricane Florence, From 3 Consecutive Days Before Landfall: North Carolina and South Carolina, 2018.

FIGURE 2—

Geoprocessing Model for Estimating the Number of People Within Buffer Zones From Landfall for Hurricane Florence: North Carolina and South Carolina, 2018 Note. COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.