Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Campylobacter jejuni in Ground Meat Products in Korea

Abstract

This study evaluated Campylobacter jejuni risk in ground meat products. The C. jejuni prevalence in ground meat products was investigated. To develop the predictive model, survival data of C. jejuni were collected at 4°C-30°C during storage, and the data were fitted using the Weibull model. In addition, the storage temperature and time of ground meat products were investigated during distribution. The consumption amount and frequency of ground meat products were investigated by interviewing 1,500 adults. The prevalence, temperature, time, and consumption data were analyzed by @RISK to generate probabilistic distributions. In 224 samples of ground meat products, there were no C. jejuni-contaminated samples. A scenario with a series of probabilistic distributions, a predictive model and a dose-response model was prepared to calculate the probability of illness, and it showed that the probability of foodborne illness caused by C. jejuni per person per day from ground meat products was 5.68×10^-10, which can be considered low risk.

Keywords: Campylobacter jejuni; foodborne illness; ground meat product; microbial risk assessment; predictive model.

Fig. 1.. Scheme of Campylobacter jejuni risk assessment in ground meat products.

Fig. 2.. Probability density for initial contamination levels of Campylobacter jejuni in ground meat product.

Fig. 3.. Secondary model of Campylobacter jejuni in cutlet as a function of storage temperature.

Symbol, observed value; line, fitted line with the Davey model.

Fig. 4.. Probabilistic distribution for consumption amount of ground meat product fitted by @RISK.