Prediction of the globally ecological suitability of Panax quinquefolius by the geographic information system for global medicinal plants (GMPGIS)

Abstract

American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.) is a well-known Asian traditional herbal medicine with a large market demand. The plant is native to eastern North America, and its main producing areas worldwide are decreasing due to continuous cropping obstacles and environmental changes. Therefore, the identification of maximum similarities of new ecological distribution of P. quinquefolius, and prediction of its response to climate change in the future are necessary for plant introduction and cultivation. In this study, the areas with potential ecological suitability for P. quinquefolius were predicted using the geographic information system for global medicinal plants (GMPGIS) based on 476 occurrence points and 19 bioclimatic variables. The results indicate that the new ecologically suitable areas for P. quinquefolius are East Asia and the mid-eastern Europe, which are mainly distributed in China, Russia, Japan, Ukraine, Belarus, North Korean, South Korea, andRomania. Under global climate change scenarios, the suitable planting areas for P. quinquefolius would be increased by 9.16%-30.97%, and expandingnorth and west over the current ecologically suitable areas by 2070. The potential increased areas that are ecologically suitable include northern Canada, Eastern Europe, and the Lesser Khingan Mountains of China, and reduced regions are mainly in central China, the southern U.S., and southern Europe. Jackknife tests indicate that the precipitation of the warmest quarter was the important climatic factor controlling the distribution of P. quinquefolius. Our findings can be used as auseful guide for P. quinquefolius introduction and cultivation in ecologically suitable areas.

Keywords: American ginseng; Climate change; Ecological suitable area; GMPGIS; Jackknife test; Panax quinquefolius.