Dementia in China (2015-2050) estimated using the 1% population sampling survey in 2015

Abstract

Aim: To determine the prevalence of dementia in the past two decades and provide updated estimates about older people (aged ≥60 years) with dementia in China from 2015 to 2050.

Methods: The English and Chinese databases were retrieved. Published epidemiology surveys of dementia from 1990-2018 were screened. Meta-analysis was used to calculate their pooled prevalence. The age-moving method was used to estimate the population aged ≥60 years in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on the data of the sampling survey of 1% of the population in 2015 released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The pooled prevalence of three age groups (60-69, 70-79, ≥80 years) from 2015 to 2018 was used as the basis to estimate the number of older people with dementia.

Results: The pooled prevalence rate of dementia in Mainland China from 1985 to 2018 was 4.9% (95% CI 4.3-5.4), and the prevalence rate from 2015 to 2018 among them was 7.4% (95% CI 5.3-9.5). In 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, the number of people with dementia will be 16.93 million, 24.25 million, 31.98 million and 35.98 million, respectively. Furthermore, people with dementia aged ≥60 years in 2050 will be 2.13-fold than that of 2015.

Conclusion: The number of dementia patients in China will increase dramatically in the next 30 years without preventive measures. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2019; 19: 1096-1100.

Keywords: dementia; epidemiology; geriatric medicine; public health.