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Comment
. 2019 Oct 15;116(42):20811-20812.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1912694116. Epub 2019 Sep 26.

Reply to Bracher: Scoring probabilistic forecasts to maximize public health interpretability

Nicholas G Reich  1 , Dave Osthus  2 , Evan L Ray  3 , Teresa K Yamana  4 , Matthew Biggerstaff  5 , Michael A Johansson  6 , Roni Rosenfeld  7 , Jeffrey Shaman  4
Affiliations
Comment

Reply to Bracher: Scoring probabilistic forecasts to maximize public health interpretability

Nicholas G Reich et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .
No abstract available

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest statement: J.S. and Columbia University disclose partial ownership of SK Analytics.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
(A and B) Average logarithmic scores for all component models, shown separately for week-ahead targets (A) and seasonal targets (B). The component models are sorted with the best model according to the multibin score at the top for each panel separately. Within each panel, Left column shows the average log score calculated using the improper multibin rule and Right column shows the average log score calculated using the proper single-bin rule. The color coding indicates the percentage by which the given model is lower in score than the best model (darker colors indicate a larger difference from the best model within each column). Of the top 10 most accurate models according to the multibin scoring rule for both week-ahead and seasonal targets, 8 are in the top 10 according to single-bin scoring.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment on

References

    1. Bracher J., On the multibin logarithmic score used in the FluSight competitions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 116, 20809–20810 (2019). - PMC - PubMed
    1. Gneiting T., Raftery A. E., Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction and estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 102, 359–378 (2007).
    1. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , FluSight: Flu Forecasting (2019). https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/index.html. Accessed 7 August 2019.
    1. Reich N. G., et al. , A collaborative multiyear, multimodel assessment of seasonal influenza forecasting in the United States. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 116, 3146–3154 (2019). - PMC - PubMed