Short-term association between ambient air pollution and lung cancer mortality

Abstract

Rationale: Long-term exposure to air pollution has been associated with increased lung cancer incidence and mortality. However, the short-term association between air pollution and lung cancer mortality (LCM) remains largely unknown.

Methods: We collected daily data on particulate matter with diameter <2.5 μm (PM_2.5), particulate matter with diameter < 10 μm (PM₁₀), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and ozone (O₃), and LCM in three of the biggest cities in China, i.e. Beijing, Chongqing, and Guangzhou, from 2013 to 2015. We first estimated city-specific relationships between air pollutants and LCM using time-series generalized linear models, adjusting for potential confounders. A classification and regression tree (CART) model was used to stratify LCM risk based on combinations of air pollutants and meteorological factors in each city. Then we pooled the city-specific associations using random-effects meta-analysis. Meta regression was used to explore if city-specific characteristics modified the air pollution-LCM association. Finally, we stratified the analyses by season, age, and sex.

Results: Over the entire period, the current-day concentrations of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ in Chongqing and PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and SO₂ in Guangzhou were positively associated with LCM (Excess risk ranged from 0.72% (95% CI 0.27%-1.17%) to 6.06% (95% CI 0.76%-11.64%) with each 10 μg/m³ increment in different pollutants), but the association between current-day air pollution and LCM in Beijing was not significant (P > 0.05). When considering the environmental and weather factors simultaneously, current-day PM_2.5, relative humidity, and PM₁₀ were the most important factors associated with LCM in Beijing, Chongqing, and Guangzhou, respectively. LCM risk related with daily PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and SO₂ significantly increased with the increasing annual mean temperature and humidity of the city, while LCM risk related with daily O₃ significantly increased with the increases of latitude, annual mean O₃ concentration, and socioeconomic level. After stratification, the current-day PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and O₃ during the warm season in Beijing and PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and SO₂ during the cool season in Chongqing and Guangzhou were positively associated with LCM (Excess risk ranged from 0.93% (95% CI 0.42%-1.45%) to 7.16% (95% CI 0.64%-14.09%) with each 10 μg/m³ increment in different pollutants). Male and the elderly lung cancer patients were more sensitive to the short-term effect of air pollution.

Conclusions: Lung cancer patients should enhance protection measures against air pollution. More attentions should be paid for the high PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and O₃ during the warm season in Beijing, and high PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and SO₂ during the cool season in Chongqing and Guangzhou.

Keywords: Air pollution; China; Lung cancer mortality; Short-term; Time-series.