Evaluation of Risk Factors for Heart-Lung Transplant Recipient Outcome: An Analysis of the United Network for Organ Sharing Database

Abstract

Background: Heart-lung transplantation (HLTx) is an effective treatment for patients with advanced cardiopulmonary failure. However, no large multicenter study has focused on the relationship between donor and recipient risk factors and post-HLTx outcomes. Thus, we investigated this issue using data from the United Network for Organ Sharing database.

Methods: All adult patients (age ≥18 years) registered in the United Network for Organ Sharing database who underwent HLTx between 1987 and 2017 were included (n=997). We stratified the cohort by patients who were alive without retransplant at 1 year (n=664) and patients who died or underwent retransplant within 1 year of HLTx (n=333). The primary outcome was the influence of donor and recipient characteristics on 1-year post-HLTx recipient death or retransplant. Kaplan-Meier curves were created to assess overall freedom from death or retransplant. To obtain a better effect estimation on hazard and survival time, the parametric Accelerated Failure Time model was chosen to perform time-to-event modeling analyses.

Results: Overall graft survival at 1-year post-HLTx was 66.6%. Of donors, 53% were male, and the mean age was 28.2 years. Univariable analysis showed advanced donor age, recipient male sex, recipient creatinine, recipient history of prior cardiac or lung surgery, recipient extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support, transplant year, and transplant center volume were associated with 1-year post-HLTx death or retransplant. On multivariable analysis, advanced donor age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.017; P=0.0007), recipient male sex (HR, 1.701; P=0.0002), recipient extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support (HR, 4.854; P<0.0001), transplant year (HR, 0.962; P<0.0001), and transplantation at low-volume (HR, 1.694) and medium-volume centers (HR, 1.455) in comparison with high-volume centers (P=0.0007) remained as significant predictors of death or retransplant. These predictors were incorporated into an equation capable of estimating the preliminary probability of graft survival at 1-year post-HLTx on the basis of preoperative factors alone.

Conclusions: HLTx outcomes may be improved by considering the strong influence of donor age, recipient sex, recipient hemodynamic status, and transplant center volume. Marginal donors and recipients without significant factors contributing to poor post-HLTx outcomes may still be considered for transplantation, potentially with less impact on the risk of early postoperative death or retransplant.

Keywords: heart-lung transplantation; risk analysis; tissue and organ procurement; treatment outcome.