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. 2020 Jul 15;147(2):317-330.
doi: 10.1002/ijc.32723. Epub 2019 Nov 5.

International trends in hepatocellular carcinoma incidence, 1978-2012

Jessica L Petrick  1   2 , Andrea A Florio  1 , Ariana Znaor  3 , David Ruggieri  4 , Mathieu Laversanne  3 , Christian S Alvarez  1 , Jacques Ferlay  3 , Patricia C Valery  5 , Freddie Bray  3 , Katherine A McGlynn  1
Affiliations

International trends in hepatocellular carcinoma incidence, 1978-2012

Jessica L Petrick et al. Int J Cancer. .

Abstract

Primary liver cancer, the major histology of which is hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), is the second leading cause of cancer death worldwide. We comprehensively examined recent international trends of primary liver cancer and HCC incidence using population-based cancer registry data. Incidence for all primary liver cancer and for HCC by calendar time and birth cohort was examined for selected countries between 1978 and 2012. For each successive 5-year period, age-standardized incidence rates were calculated from Volumes V to XI of the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) series using the online electronic databases, CI5plus. Large variations persist in liver cancer incidence globally. Rates of liver cancer remain highest in Asian countries, specifically in the East and South-East, and Italy. However, rates in these high-risk countries have been decreasing in recent years. Rates in India and in most countries of Europe, the Americas and Oceania are rising. As the population seroprevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) continues to decline, we anticipate rates of HCC in many high-risk countries will continue to decrease. Treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is likely to bring down rates further in some high-rate, as well as low-rate, countries with access to effective therapies. However, such gains in the control of liver cancer are at risk of being reversed by the growing obesity and diabetes epidemics, suggesting diabetes treatment and primary prevention of obesity will be key in reducing liver cancer in the longer-term.

Keywords: cancer registry; epidemiology; incidence rates; liver cancer.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of Interest: None.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Age-adjusted male and female liver cancer incidence rates by country, 2008-2012. Age-adjusted to the world standard population.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Trends in liver cancer incidence rates by country, 1978-1982 through 2008-2012. Rates are per 100,000 person-years and age-adjusted to the world standard population.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Trends in liver cancer incidence rates by calendar period for primary liver cancer and hepatocellular carcinoma, 1978-2012.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Incidence rates per 100,000 person-years by year of birth for A) primary liver cancer and B) hepatocellular carcinoma from selected countries. For each graph, rates in the 5-year age groups 35-39, 40-44, …., 80-84 are plotted.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Incidence rates per 100,000 person-years by year of birth for A) primary liver cancer and B) hepatocellular carcinoma from selected countries. For each graph, rates in the 5-year age groups 35-39, 40-44, …., 80-84 are plotted.
Figure 5.
Figure 5.
Fitted liver cancer incidence: age-specific rates per 100,000 person-years (left) and incidence rate ratios by birth cohort (right) in selected countries. Incidence rate ratios are relative to the reference cohort, midpoint 1940.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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