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. 2019 Nov 27;69(12):2195-2198.
doi: 10.1093/cid/ciz1015.

Ending the Epidemic in America Will Not Happen if the Status Quo Continues: Modeled Projections for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Incidence in 6 US Cities

Bohdan Nosyk  1   2 , Xiao Zang  1   2 , Emanuel Krebs  1 , Jeong Eun Min  1 , Czarina N Behrends  3 , Carlos Del Rio  4 , Julia C Dombrowski  5 , Daniel J Feaster  6 , Matthew Golden  5 , Brandon D L Marshall  7 , Shruti H Mehta  8 , Lisa R Metsch  9 , Bruce R Schackman  3 , Steven Shoptaw  10 , Steffanie A Strathdee  11
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Ending the Epidemic in America Will Not Happen if the Status Quo Continues: Modeled Projections for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Incidence in 6 US Cities

Bohdan Nosyk et al. Clin Infect Dis. .

Abstract

We estimated 10-year (2020-2030) trajectories for human immunodeficiency virus incidence in 6 US cities. Estimated incidence will only decrease in 2 of 6 cities, with the overall population-weighted incidence decreasing 3.1% (95% credible interval [CrI], -1.0% to 8.5%) by 2025, and 4.3% (95% CrI, -2.6% to 12.7%) by 2030 across cities. Targeted, context-specific combination implementation strategies will be necessary to meet the newly established national targets.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS; dynamic transmission model; epidemiological projection; “Ending the HIV epidemic” plan.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Model projections for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence (rate, per 100 000 adults) under current health service levels in 6 US cities, 2015–2030. We highlight 2020 (the year of initiative launch), 2025 (5-year target), and 2030 (10-year target), in accordance with the Trump Administration’s “Ending the HIV Epidemic: A Plan for America” initiative. Abbreviations: CA, California; FL, Florida; GA, Georgia; MD, Maryland; NY, New York; WA, Washington.
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References

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