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. 2019 Oct 24:147:e295.
doi: 10.1017/S095026881900181X.

Updated modelling of the prevalence of immunodeficiency-associated long-term vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) excreters

D A Kalkowska  1 , M A Pallansch  2 , K M Thompson  1
Affiliations

Updated modelling of the prevalence of immunodeficiency-associated long-term vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) excreters

D A Kalkowska et al. Epidemiol Infect. .

Abstract

Conditions and evidence continue to evolve related to the prediction of the prevalence of immunodeficiency-associated long-term vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) excreters, which affect assumptions related to forecasting risks and evaluating potential risk management options. Multiple recent reviews provided information about individual iVDPV excreters, but inconsistencies among the reviews raise some challenges. This analysis revisits the available evidence related to iVDPV excreters and provides updated model estimates that can support future risk management decisions. The results suggest that the prevalence of iVDPV excreters remains highly uncertain and variable, but generally confirms the importance of managing the risks associated with iVDPV excreters throughout the polio endgame in the context of successful cessation of all oral poliovirus vaccine use.

Keywords: Polio; polio vaccine virus; virology (human) and epidemiology.

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Conflict of interest statement

None.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Assumed baseline survival curves for CVID and oPID patients effectively-treated (with IVIG) in a population with R0 values for WPV1 of 4 or 5.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Assumed fractions of CVID and oPID patients treated with IVIG as a function of time, by income level.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Prevalence of long-term iVDPV excreters in the absence of PAVD use, based on the monthly averages of 1000 iterations of the DES model.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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