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. 2019 Oct 31;16(159):20190417.
doi: 10.1098/rsif.2019.0417. Epub 2019 Oct 30.

Gestational growth trajectories derived from a dynamic fetal-placental scaling law

Daniel Baller  1 , Diana M Thomas  1 , Kevin Cummiskey  1 , Carl Bredlau  2 , Nadav Schwartz  3 , Kelly Orzechowski  4 , Richard C Miller  5 , Anthony Odibo  6 , Ruchit Shah  7 , Carolyn M Salafia  7
Affiliations

Gestational growth trajectories derived from a dynamic fetal-placental scaling law

Daniel Baller et al. J R Soc Interface. .

Abstract

Fetal trajectories characterizing growth rates in utero have relied primarily on goodness of fit rather than mechanistic properties exhibited in utero. Here, we use a validated fetal-placental allometric scaling law and a first principles differential equations model of placental volume growth to generate biologically meaningful fetal-placental growth curves. The growth curves form the foundation for understanding healthy versus at-risk fetal growth and for identifying the timing of key events in utero.

Keywords: differential equation; fetal growth curves; logistic growth model; nonlinear regression; placenta; placental volume.

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Conflict of interest statement

D.M.T. and C.M.S. report the patent ‘System and Method for Predicting Fetal and Maternal Health Risks’, which was filed within the USA and internationally. The US application was filed on 30 March 2015, and assigned serial no. 61/973,565, and the international application was filed on 30 March 2015, and assigned no. PCT/US2015/023257.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Plot of α versus gestational day calculated from the ratio placental weight/fetal weight3/4 using data from [50].
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Joint confidence regions of placental parameters r and K for uncomplicated and growth-restricted pregnancies. The two regions do not overlap and are greatly separated by the K parameter. Variability in the r and K parameters is much greater for the growth-restricted model leading to a larger joint confidence region. (Online version in colour.)
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Scatter plot of placental volume in millilitres versus gestational day plotted for uncomplicated pregnancies (NYU, UPENN, WUSTL, St Barnabas and PIN), represented by triangles. The values of r and K for the placental growth curve model were fitted using the uncomplicated pregnancy data and the model using these values is represented by the black line. The point of inflection is reflected as a solid red circle and occurs at 140.15 days of gestation. Placental volumes of pregnancies complicated by SGA (UCONN SGA and UPENN SGA) represented by squares are also plotted. The values of r and K for the placental growth curve model were fitted using the SGA pregnancy data and the model using these values is represented by the orange curve. The point of inflection is denoted by a solid black circle and occurs at 115.32 days of gestation. (Online version in colour.)
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