Estimation of Extracellular Volume Fraction With Routine Multiphasic Pancreatic Computed Tomography to Predict the Survival of Patients With Stage IV Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to determine whether extracellular volume (ECV) fraction with routine equilibrium contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) can predict outcomes in patients with stage IV pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) treated with chemotherapy.

Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study of 128 patients with stage IV PDAC who underwent multiphasic pancreatic CT before systemic chemotherapy. Contrast enhancement and ECV fraction of the primary lesion were calculated using region-of-interest measurement within the PDAC and aorta on unenhanced and equilibrium phase-enhanced CT. The effects of clinical prognostic factors and ECV fractions on progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses using Cox proportional hazards models.

Results: The number of metastatic organs and tumor ECV fraction were significant for PFS (P = 0.005 and 0.001, respectively) and OS (P = 0.012 and 0.007, respectively). On the multivariate analysis, multiple metastatic organs (PFS, P = 0.046; OS, P = 0.047) and lower tumor ECV fraction (PFS, P = 0.010; OS, P = 0.026) were identified as independent predictors of poor PFS and OS.

Conclusion: Extracellular volume fraction with routine equilibrium contrast-enhanced CT may potentially predict survival in patients with stage IV PDAC treated with chemotherapy.