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. 2019 Nov 6;14(11):e0220170.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0220170. eCollection 2019.

Assessing the impact of the "one-child policy" in China: A synthetic control approach

Stuart Gietel-Basten  1 , Xuehui Han  2 , Yuan Cheng  3
Affiliations

Assessing the impact of the "one-child policy" in China: A synthetic control approach

Stuart Gietel-Basten et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

There is great debate surrounding the demographic impact of China's population control policies, especially the one-birth restrictions, which ended only recently. We apply an objective, data-driven method to construct the total fertility rates and population size of a 'synthetic China', which is assumed to be not subjected to the two major population control policies implemented in the 1970s. We find that while the earlier, less restrictive 'later-longer-fewer' policy introduced in 1973 played a critical role in driving down the fertility rate, the role of the 'one-child policy' introduced in 1979 and its descendants was much less significant. According to our model, had China continued with the less restrictive policies that were implemented in 1973 and followed a standard development trajectory, the path of fertility transition and total population growth would have been statistically very similar to the pattern observed over the past three decades.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have read the journal's policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: SGB is paid employee of The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, XH is paid employees of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, YC is paid employees of Fudan University. There are no patents, products in development or marketed products associated with this research to declare. This does not alter the authors' adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Time trend of ‘actual’ and ‘synthetic’ Total Fertility Rate for China, 1955–2015.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Robustness permutation test on the significance of the 1973 and 1979 policy impact.
(A)Permutation test with 1973 policy–gap between true TFR and synthetic TFR. (B) Permutation test with 1979 policy–gap between true TFR and synthetic TFR.
Fig 3
Fig 3. Time trend of population sizes under ‘true’ and ‘synthetic’ TFR for China, 1955–2015.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

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