Prediction of early (30-day) and late (30-90-day) mortality after radical cystectomy in a comprehensive cancer centre over two decades

Abstract

Background: Radical cystectomy (RC) is associated with substantial postoperative mortality. In this study, we analyzed early (30-day; 30 M) and late (30-90-day; 30-90 M) mortality after RC in a Dutch tertiary referral center and determined factors associated with 30 M, 30-90 M and 90-day mortality (90 M).

Patients and methods: We identified 823 patients who underwent RC for bladder cancer in the Netherlands Cancer Institute between 1997 and 2017. Predictive factors for mortality were analyzed to identify patients with a higher mortality risk. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to examine the influence of patient, surgical and histopathological variables on 30 M, 30-90 M and 90 M.

Results: Thirty-day mortality was 1.9% and 90 M was 6.0%. Multivariable analysis showed that age (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01-1.1, p = 0.002) and ASA 3-4 (OR 3.57, 95% CI 1.25-10.16, p = 0.002) were significant predictors of 30 M while higher ASA score (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.31-6.5, p = 0.009) and higher pathological T stage (OR 8.8, 95% CI 1.9-40.4, p = 0.005) were associated with 30-90 M. Risk of 90 M was increased in patients with ASA 3-4 (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2-4.9, p = 0.01), pT3-4 (OR 3.1, 95% CI 1.27-7.57, p = 0.01) and positive LNs (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.25-4.98, p = 0.009).

Conclusions: Patient-related factors predicted 30 M whereas both patient-related and cancer-related factors predicted 30-90 M. This suggests that patient mix, i.e. patient- vs. cancer-related factors for 30 M and 30-90 M, should be taken into account if mortality rates are to be compared between hospitals.

Keywords: 30-day mortality; 90-day mortality; Bladder; Cancer; Radical cystectomy; Urothelial carcinoma.