Predicting Dengue Outbreaks in Cambodia

Abstract

In Cambodia, dengue outbreaks occur each rainy season (May-October) but vary in magnitude. Using national surveillance data, we designed a tool that can predict 90% of the variance in peak magnitude by April, when typically <10% of dengue cases have been reported. This prediction may help hospitals anticipate excess patients.

Keywords: Cambodia; Pediatric dengue; dengue; healthcare system; magnitude of the epidemic; modeling; surveillance data; viruses.

Figure 1

Monthly number of probable dengue cases reported to the National Dengue Surveillance System in Cambodia, 2004–2016. Dark gray bars represent the 3 months (February, March, and April) used as predictors for the magnitude of the following peak. For each year, the month corresponding to the peak of the epidemic is indicated.

Figure 2

Dengue cases in Cambodia, 2004–2016. A) Observed versus predicted magnitude of the peak for each dengue season. We used a simple linear regression model, M = α + βN, in which M indicates the magnitude of the peak and N the number of reported dengue-like cases in April. The black line represents the expected results with perfect prediction. B) Results for the leave-one-out cross-validation procedure.