External validation of STESS and EMSE as outcome prediction scores in an Egyptian cohort with status epilepticus

Abstract

Purpose: There is a lack of data concerning the performance of the outcome prediction scores in patients with status epilepticus (SE) in developing countries. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive performances of the status epilepticus severity score (STESS) and the epidemiology-based mortality score in status epilepticus (EMSE) and adaptation of such scoring system to be compatible with the nature of society.

Method: This is a prospective study, conducted in Egypt from the period of January 2017 to June 2018. The main outcome measure was survival versus death, on hospital discharge. The cutoff point with the best sensitivity and specificity to predict mortality was determined through a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results: Among the 144 patients with SE with a mean age of 39.3 ± 19.5 years recruited into the study, 38 patients (26.3%) died in the hospital with the survival of 99 patients while 7 patients (4.9%) were referred to other centers with an unknown outcome. Although EMSE had a bit larger area under the curve (AUC) (0.846) than STESS-3 (AUC 0.824), STESS-3 had the best performance as in-hospital death prediction score as it has a higher negative predictive value (94.6%) than that of EMSE (90.9%) in order not to miss high-risk patients.

Conclusion: In the Egyptian population, STESS and EMSE are useful tools in predicting mortality outcome of SE. The STESS performed significantly better than EMSEE combinations as a mortality prediction score.

Keywords: EMSE; Mortality outcome; STESS; Status epilepticus.