Prevalence of African Swine Fever in China, 2018-2019

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) has spread widely across China since 2018. It represents a significant threat to the pig production industry, as no treatment or vaccine is available for this disease. In this study, the geographical distribution and epidemiological features of ASF from all endemic regions of China were analyzed. We focused on the epidemiological data from 149 ASF cases among domestic pigs and wild boars, confirmed during 2018-2019. We found that, in the 1-year period from August 2018 to July 2019, ASF was reported in most geographical regions of the country, which comprises 31 provinces. The outbreaks were mainly located along the important economic zones and tended to increase southward in general. The southwest region was the most severely affected, with 22% of cases, followed by the Northeast, with 20% of cases. There was no significant difference among other regions. Additionally, the overall mean rate of case-incidence/fatality was 12.5% and 64%, respectively, in this period and varied significantly different months, with a general trend towards a decrease over time. The highest incidence rate (30.4%) occurred in April-May 2019, and the highest fatality rate (81.21%) in October-November 2018, demonstrating the marked seasonality in ASF transmission. Furthermore, anthropogenic effects were a major significant risk factor for the spread of the disease. In summary, this initial epidemiological analysis of ASF provides a global perspective on ASF and facilitates detection of trends and patterns, which will be useful for updating preventive actions at a national level and evaluating their impact on public health.

Keywords: African swine fever; control; epidemic; outbreak.